Abstract The National Bureau of Statistics released data on October 19. According to preliminary calculations, China's gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters was 487.774 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% at comparable prices. Looking at the quarter, the growth rate of China's economy in the first, second and third quarters was 7....
Looking at the quarter, China's economic growth rate in the first, second and third quarters was 7.0%, 7.0% and 6.9% respectively. This is the first time in six years that GDP growth has broken “7â€.
Internal and external challenges are superimposed by 6.9%.
According to the analysis of Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, after entering the third quarter, some new situations and new problems in the international and domestic economic and financial fields are the main reasons for the slowdown in economic growth.
From the external environment, the world economy is still adjusting and diverging, and the recovery momentum is insufficient. The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and other institutions have lowered their global economic growth expectations. In addition, the US interest rate hike is expected to strengthen, and the world's commodity markets, stock markets and foreign exchange markets are in turmoil. Increased the pressure on Chinese exports.
From the domestic observation, China is currently in the key stage of economic transformation and structural adjustment “climbing over the ridgeâ€. In the process of active adjustment, not only the traditional industries go to inventory, go to production capacity, but also form a certain downward pressure on the industry in the short term, cars and mobile phones. Some industries that have experienced rapid growth in the early stage have also entered the adjustment period due to market capacity.
Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of investment that has long driven China's economic growth has slowed markedly, and the contribution of the secondary industry to economic growth has further declined. This has provided support for this judgment.
Chen Dongqi, executive vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in the context of a common domestic and international economic transformation and a sluggish demand in the world market, it is hard to achieve a growth of around 7% in China's economy.
Optimization + Highlights China's economic prospects are expected
In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 2,160.8 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 10.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the first half of the year. In the context of weak investment and exports, the consumption of this carriage is stable and contributes the most to GDP growth, reaching 58.4%.
In addition to the optimization of the three major demand structures, there are still some changes that the Chinese economy has been striving for for a long time:
-- The industrial structure shifts from industry-led to service-oriented trends. In the first three quarters, the added value of the tertiary industry increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and continued to “lead†in the three industries, accounting for 51.4% of GDP, 2.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
-- New growth points such as new industries, new formats, new products, and new economies are accelerating and continually breaking through. From January to September, online retail sales increased by 36.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate of high-tech industry added value reached 10.4%, which was 4.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size.
——The market vitality continues to be stimulated, and the “double creation†enthusiasm continues to rise. In the first three quarters, the number of new registered market players in the country was 10.655 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%.
-- Economic growth has slowed down, but employment is still relatively full, and household income continues to grow rapidly. In the first three quarters, China’s new employment reached 10.66 million, which has exceeded the annual plan target. In the same period, the per capita disposable income of the national residents actually increased by 7.7%, and continued to “outperform†the GDP growth rate during the same period.
"The closing season" needs to go all out
From the historical experience, the performance of the “end of the season†in the fourth quarter is of great significance to the economic work of the whole year. Where will the Chinese economy go?
Experts in the industry believe that fluctuations in some indicators have not changed the fundamentals of China's economy, but it still needs a lot of effort to stabilize growth and increase efficiency. We should not only have confidence in accomplishing the main goals and tasks throughout the year, but also enhance our sense of urgency, effectively hedge the downside factors, and manage potential risks.
Some experts believe that the export pressure situation is difficult to reverse, consumption is difficult to support in the short term, and the fourth quarter needs to pay more attention to the key role of investment.
Xu Kunlin, Director of the Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters that the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to re-deploy the recent steady growth of investment, and clearly stated that the fourth quarter should put the steady growth of investment in the top position of all work. Effectively lay a good investment policy "combination boxing" to expand reasonable and effective investment.
Experts generally believe that the next step to withstand downward pressure and gather development momentum requires fully mobilizing the two enthusiasm of the central and local governments, stimulating the vitality and creativity of various market players, and strengthening macroeconomic policies to increase efficiency and focus on measures. We will lay a solid foundation for next year's development, promote the development of speed control without reducing the trend, and improve the quality and quality, and realize the stability and long-term stability of the Chinese economy.
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