LME copper and aluminum markets:
Last week, the three-month copper price trend of LME rose first. After opening at $4,230 on Monday, it set a new record high of $4,245 on the day. On Tuesday, the price fell sharply from a high level and adjusted downwards to a low of $4015 in Wednesday's trade. This was driven by the purchase of funds. The price began its three-day rally, and the three-month copper price of LME returned to the 4200 US dollars trading zone again. The weekly price of Friday was 4217 US dollars, down by 13 US dollars from last Friday; In the rally, the price remained in the high oscillation range of the previous period to make sideways movements. The latter half of the week was driven by the sharp rise of the relevant market copper prices. In addition, the output of Alcoa, the world’s largest aluminum producer, fell. Strengthened to provide support, affected by this, aluminum prices skyrocketed, on Friday once again refreshed in 2001 new highs to 2107 US dollars, compared with the final closing price of 2101.5 US dollars, compared with the previous Friday rose by 62 US dollars.
Cause of the trend:
1. Some economic data released by the United States last week were good, reflecting that the U.S. economy is still in a steady recovery. The good operation of the U.S. economy will continue to support copper prices. Last Tuesday, Redbook Research announced that US chain store sales rose in the third week of November. The agency said that sales so far in November have increased by 0.1% compared to the same period in October. Sales of major retailers for the week ended Nov. 19 compared to the same period last year Rose 3.6%. A report released Wednesday and market sources said that the final value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in November was 81.6, compared with 74.2 in October;
2. On Friday, an industry trade organization in the United States stated that in the United States, brass imports fell by 21.2% year-on-year in September 2005, while exports rose by 17.5% year-on-year. The Copper and Brass Fabricators Council Inc. said in a statement Friday that the US imported 51,875,703 pounds of brass in September and 65,915,329 pounds in the same period in 2004. September brass exports increased from 25,786,045 pounds in 2004 to 30,310,699 pounds.
SHFE copper and aluminum markets:
Last week, Shanghai copper trended downwards. After the main Shanghai copper January contract opened at 37300 on Monday, prices remained high and oscillated during the first two trading days. On Wednesday, due to the increase in market supply caused by the auction event, copper prices closed at the same day and closed on Thursday. Driven by the sharp increase in copper prices in the external disk, Shanghai Copper closed out the Yang Xian for two consecutive trading days, but its performance was not strong. Compared with London Copper, Shanghai Copper was weaker than the previous transaction, compared with the closing price of 36700 on Friday. It fell 360 yuan on Friday, the market trading was dull, and the positions continued to shift to the far month; last week, Shanghai aluminum rose sharply. After the Shanghai Aluminum March contract was opened to 17370 on Monday, the price remained at a high level during the first three trading days. On Thursday, the price of international aluminum prices and copper prices in the relevant market drastically increased, and prices continued to rise sharply. In the fifth round of trading, a recent high of 17,730 hit the market, closing at 17,670 points, which was a massive increase of 350 yuan from Friday and the number of open positions on Friday increased to 11,594 contracts.
Cause of the trend:
1. According to the “Several Opinions on Stopping Blind Investment in the Copper Smelting Industry†issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the People's Bank of China, and the General Administration of Environmental Protection yesterday, all localities must have established, under construction, and proposed copper smelting projects. Clean up once. Any copper smelting project that violates the provisions of industrial policies and investment management, environmental impact assessment, and land management shall be prohibited from construction. If an environmental impact report is not submitted to the administrative department of environmental protection for approval and construction is not started without authorization, all construction under construction shall be suspended. All production units shall be suspended from production, and shall be dealt with in accordance with relevant laws and regulations;
2. Import and Export: According to customs data, China imported 67,683 tons of copper cathode in October, which was 5% lower than the same period of last year. China imported 330,647 tons of copper concentrate in October, an increase of 43.9% year-on-year. Japanese industrial officials said on the 25th that Japanese copper smelters have already hammered out the 2006 copper concentrate processing and refining fee contract for the same overseas miners at US$ 95/tonne and 9.5 cents/lb;
3. In the spot market: The prices of the three major spot markets rose sharply on Friday. The average spot price of the Yangtze River increased by 475 yuan/tonne to 38,500 yuan/tonne; the average price of Guangdong Nankang rose by 150 yuan/tonne to 38,300 yuan/tonne; It closed at RMB 38,500/ton, up by RMB 900/ton. Huatong's spot premium increased to RMB 1,300/ton for the current month's contract.
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