Analysis of Accumulation Causes of Coal Inventories in Qinhuangdao, Hebei Province

In just two months, Qinhuangdao's coal stocks have risen from less than 4 million tons and have soared to 8.795 million tons, setting the highest level since 2009.

It is clear that the coal industry has become aware that there are no surplus yards in the port, and Zhang Mo (a pseudonym) will still dispatch the coal to be shipped to Qinhuangdao port on schedule.

“The coal cannot be broken!” Zhang Mo’s coal was transported from Baotou through the Daqin Line to Qinhuangdao Port. This month’s rail wagon plan was signed at the end of last month, and the annual plan was signed in February of this year. In his view, if Because the market does not work well this month, the wagon plan next month will be difficult to guarantee.

Compared to the reduction of coal operating profit, the loss of wagon plans will be a greater blow. Under the tight coal transportation situation, railway wagons have already become tight commodities. There is no “relationship” and they cannot be given priority. Maintaining this “relationship” means continuing cooperation. “If you don’t, it will be grabbed by others immediately. If you go to the next month, it will be difficult."

In addition to facing the loss of wagons, if the cooperation is interrupted, the next start of Zhang Mo may also bear more freight charges. “It would be better to pile up in the harbor instead of tossing back and forth.”

However, today's coal market is no longer the same as in the past, in June of the previous year, when the summer was approaching, there were administrative orders for power plants to increase the number of coal deposits. Even coal traders had guaranteed political supply of political indicators. Qinhuangdao Port is the main hub of the “Northern Coal and Southern Transportation” major channel. It is responsible for the coal supply of the “eight provinces and one city” in the south, and it has also become a battleground for coal. “The coal is left intact there and it will Dealt several times by coal dealers."

The current situation is that the coal transported by Zhang Mo to Qingang has no home collusion. There is even no storage yard for loading and unloading. They have to park in the open space near the platform and are left unattended at their own risk.

Obviously, there are not many people who share the same attitude with Zhang Mo, otherwise the port inventory will not be piled up to the present level. As of June 7, Qinhuangdao port coal inventory has reached 8.795 million tons, the highest level since 2009.

Qinhuangdao Port has the world's largest dedicated port coal storage yard, with the largest stockpiles being 10.425 million tons. However, Li Xuegang, general manager of the Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Market, told a new financial reporter that the maximum stockpiling volume is a theoretical value. Generally, it is already difficult to carry out loading and unloading work up to 8 million tons. At this time, Qinhuangdao Port will formulate contingency plans. , including some dredging measures and rail shipping restrictions.

The dredging measures have played some roles. From May 30 to June 5, the amount of coal imported from Qinhuangdao Port totaled 5.036 million tons, a decrease of 14.4 million tons from the previous phase of 5.18 million tons, and the daily average was transferred. Coal is about 720,000 tons. In terms of coal withdrawal, the shipment of coal was 4.43 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons from the previous week's 4.085 million tons, an increase of 8.45%, and the average daily coal withdrawal was 633,000 tons.

However, from the data point of view, the amount of daily transferred coal is still higher than the adjusted amount of 87,000 tons, and the coal in the port is also higher and higher. It is not only the port of Qinhuangdao that used to be the port of shipment but Li Xuegang found that the site of the port in the major consumer regions of the country is also “full of coal”, and the situation of coal in the port is serious. He told the media: “The major coastal ports in Guangzhou and Ningbo, and the sites near the place of consumption in Fangchenggang have large coal inventories, making it impossible for coal arrival vessels to unload and harbor berths to be vacant.”

Another coal producer, Mr. Liu Shiyuan, who is weak in power generation, has recently taken a trip to the power plant.

He found that the coal storage capacity of Shandong power plants is very large, especially the power plants of the five major power generation groups, such as Guodian’s power plant in Yantai, which has close to 200,000 tons of coal inventories. According to their daily coal consumption of 5,000 tons, they can The number of days for generating electricity is about 40 days.

"A few years ago, the days of coal mines are now difficult. Because coal is not easy to sell, don't send money to (power plants) and send them in." Liu Shiyuan lamented.

Anxious coal companies began to lose steam. On May 31, the China Coal Industry Association urgently convened large-scale coal companies such as Shenhua Group, China Coal Group, and Kailuan Group to convene a symposium on the analysis of coal enterprises' economic operation to study the current problems.

As far as the Shandong region is concerned, 19 power plants in Shandong Province supplied by Shandong Energy Group have reached 5.52 million tons as of May 28, and the average number of available days is more than 30 days; Shandong, which is supplied by Shanxi Yangquan Coal Industry Group Eight key power plants have one stock with more than 50 days of availability, three with more than 40 days, and four with more than 30 days.

This is also the case in the country. According to statistics, as of May 27, the country’s key power plants had more than 96 million tons of electricity coal in stock, with an average of 27 days.

This year, in different years, Li Ting, a senior analyst at the Center for the Promotion of Circulation Productivity in China, found that in the past during summer peak coal consumption, the consumption of inventory was 16-17 days, and under normal circumstances it was below 14 days.

China Pingmei Shenma Group research found that the lack of thermal power generation in the entire Central China region has led to an overall increase in coal inventory this year.

“The increase in the number of coal deposits in power plants is mainly due to the fact that the operating willingness to generate electricity caused by operating losses is not strong.” Ouyang Changyu, deputy secretary-general of the China Electro-Optical Union, told the New Financial Reporter that although the on-grid tariff was raised last year and the price of coal fell this year, the company’s loss of power generation It has narrowed, but it still cannot make most power plants turn around. The lack of demand is the secondary cause of the reduction in power generation.

Li Ting does not agree with this view: “The level of profitability of power generation companies is directly related to the utilization level of power generation units. Power generation companies are not expected to generate more power.” He analyzed that the biggest headache for thermal power companies is not the rising cost of coal, but the lack of electricity demand. This led to low utilization of power generation equipment. Power companies are not reluctant to generate electricity, but they cannot send electricity.

This view has data support. According to forward-looking data center monitoring, the average utilization of thermal power equipment in the country from January to April 2012 was 1,705 hours, which was 30 hours less than the same period of last year and less than 10 years earlier.

However, high-power coal stocks are not necessarily a bad thing for power plants. Li Ting believes that it is mainly able to increase its own bargaining power and that it can keep pushing down coal prices.

The effect appears. As of June 5, the thermal coal price of 5,500 calories in the ports of the Bohai Rim closed at 768 yuan/ton, which was a drop of 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, and also lower than the 40 yuan of the “price limit” for the “coal”. /Ton.

An analyst from Qinhuangdao Coalnet told the New Financial Reporter that in the recent transaction information, there were fewer and fewer buying information, basically all supply information. “In the past, when the wind was going to summer, the leaders of power plants and cement plants would all come to the port to purchase. And now they have not come yet."

The downstream customers of Qinhuangdao Port are mainly concentrated in the southern coastal power plants, but in recent years, taking advantage of local ports, they have had new options for coal procurement. In 2011, imported coal took the domestic coal price to a total of 182 million tons, and this year is still not soft. According to statistics, from January to April this year, China's cumulative coal imports reached 86.55 million tons, an increase of 69.6% year-on-year, nearly half of the total imports last year.

In the situation where the supply of coal is relatively abundant, the acceptance of power plants has also begun to tighten, and most of them have begun to implement double-buckling standards. According to the staff of the production and operation department of Qingang Stock Co., Ltd., when the demand is strong, the power company often reminds the port business department that the delivery of the goods can be fulfilled. The coal company is now playing this role. “It's like on the wine table. Anyone who proposes a toast and drinks hard will lose his position."