2011 faces multiple difficulties, power shortages, money shortages, the central bank raise interest rates again, the tide of bankruptcy is coming, facing the big environment, the industrial transformation of domestic hardware enterprises is “step by step startlingâ€. Luo Baihui, secretary-general of the International Model Association, believes that China’s “hard landing†risk is still small, as high-end consumption is still strong, and the construction of affordable housing and the construction of a large number of infrastructures in the “12th Five-Year Plan†year will drive investment growth. As the price of pork with a higher CPI weight has fallen, the peak of inflation has begun to emerge. In terms of tightening monetary policy, the Chinese government has hinted that it may moderately relax the austerity policy, and the risk of the European debt crisis has fallen sharply, continuing to boost the market. First, the weak dollar to increase China's foreign economic trends in Europe and the United States, the progress of the debt crisis, the tightness of monetary policy is the focus of the overseas economy in the second half of the year, but also the key to China's export situation, the trend of the renminbi and China's imported inflation. A comparative analysis of key indicators in Europe and the United States, due to the worrying US economic data, the US debt situation is far worse than the European, European and American spreads continue to exist, it is expected that the US dollar will remain weak in the fourth quarter. As the world's most important reserve currency, the US dollar's continued over-exposure and depreciation will be the main external dilemma facing China. 1. Comparison 1: The US economy recovers weaker than expected Since the first quarter of this year, the US economic growth rate has shown a downward trend. The real GDP growth rate has increased by 1.9% year-on-year, which is weaker than the 3.1% growth rate in the fourth quarter. Private consumption, employment, and real estate data are frustrating. In May, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by only 54,000, the lowest level in recent times; the unemployment rate rose from 9% to 9.1%. Affected by factors such as high unemployment rate and high housing foreclosure rate, the US real estate recovery is still weak, and it still continues the weak situation of “price dropâ€. The recovery of the core countries in the euro zone is stable, especially Germany will continue to play the role of the "locomotive" of economic growth in the euro zone. Due to the strong export, Germany's domestic spending and employment situation is more optimistic. The IMF had earlier predicted that Germany's GDP would reach 3.2% this year. 2. Comparison 2: The US debt situation is far worse than Europe's budget cuts and debt reduction are the top priorities of the United States. The current proportion of US Treasury bonds to GDP has approached 100%, which is higher than the proportion of 80% in the Eurozone. The US fiscal deficit accounts for more than 10% of GDP, and is much higher than the 6% level in the Eurozone. At the same time, the US state governments and many municipal governments are also facing different levels of financial crisis. However, it is difficult for the White House and the Republican Party to reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling. If the US government reduces spending accordingly, it will have a negative impact on the US economy in the recovery. In Europe, as the euro zone countries cannot form a fiscal alliance, in the long run, the problem of fiscal inconsistency will always plague the settlement of the debt problem in southern Europe. But through the "new debt to the old debt," the Greek debt crisis can be delayed for 1-2 years. In the short term, Greece is less likely to restructure and exit the euro zone, and European problems will not break out. 3. Comparison 3: Europe and the United States spreads continue to exist in the euro zone in May, the inflation level was 2.7%, although lower than April 2.8%, but still far higher than the ECB's 2% target. After the "inflation warrior" Italian central bank governor Draghi succeeded the ECB president, the European Central Bank will take a step forward in the anti-inflation stance, and the possibility of raising interest rates still exists. In the US, although the US inflation rate reached 3.6% in May, its core inflation rate was only 1.5%. Although the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) will be withdrawn at the end of June, the poor economic data still does not rule out the possibility of QE3 launch. It is expected that the US interest rate hike will be postponed until 2012. The weak dollar may increase the pressure on commodity prices in the second half of the year. At the same time, the overseas economic trend is still unclear. The debt problem has caused panic in the market and has increased the difficulty of China's exports. At the same time, the increase in domestic labor and raw material costs, the cancellation of tax rebates on some commodities, and the continued appreciation of the renminbi have also increased the pressure on Chinese exporters. We will reduce the export growth rate to 15% this year, and the import growth rate will be 20%. The contribution of net exports to GDP will remain negative throughout the year. And because the export situation is worse than imports, the trade surplus may drop to 140 billion. It is expected that the RMB will appreciate against the US dollar to 6.3 before the end of the year. Second, the economic slowdown cannot avoid the signs of a slowdown in the Chinese economy in the first half of this year. The PMI data of the leading economic index continued to decline, consumption data continued to slow down, and some regions were affected by the difficulty of electricity consumption. The more signs of economic slowdown have become apparent, the voice of policy “overshoot†is endless, and the market is more worried about the “hard landing†of the Chinese economy. In this sense, a moderate slowdown is an unavoidable process because the slowdown in economic growth is the inevitable result of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control to curb inflation trends and adjust economic structure and transform growth patterns. Although the current monetary policy is tight, the fiscal policy remains positive except for the cancellation of car purchases. The “wide fiscal†can support economic growth without a sharp decline. In fact, there is no obvious sign of cooling in the current Chinese economy. Luo Baihui, the invited researcher of the China International Economic Development Research Center and the secretary-general of the International Model Association, believes that China’s current high-end consumption is still strong, and the investment in affordable housing and the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†The construction of a large amount of infrastructure in the first year of the year will also drive the investment to not fall sharply. For the electricity shortage phenomenon that is more concerned in the market, it is mainly due to the traditional maintenance time of the power plant in April-May and September-October, and it coincides with the completion of energy-saving emission reduction tasks in some factories last year, and stopped production. The resumption of work has caused an increase in demand for electricity. Third, the peak pressure of inflation does not decrease. There is a view in the market that the current round of inflation will peak in the first half of the year, and there is a view that the inflation level of 5.4% in March will be the peak of this round of inflation. However, the data shows that the current inflation has not gone down the trend, but has repeatedly hit new highs and is still in the upside range. In response to this round of inflation, the central bank has frequently made moves, why is inflation still continuing to rise? Luo Baihui, the invited researcher of the China International Economic Development Research Center and the secretary-general of the International Model Association, believes that the reasons for the current round of inflation are very complicated, both domestic and international, including both institutional and trending factors. The current round of inflation has long-term characteristics, and it is more difficult to resist inflation. Since the currency is not overdone, the liquidity easing caused by the long-term money supply puts pressure on inflation and will not ease soon. In addition, the overcapacity phenomenon has been changing with the sharp increase in demand and the elimination of backward production capacity. Especially after the emergence of "Lewis Turning Point", the rise of labor wages no longer supports the traditional state of oversupply. The rise in wages will have a long-term and lasting driving force for prices. At the same time, resource price reform is also imminent, especially the pressure on electricity prices after the emergence of “electricity shortageâ€, as long-term institutional factors will also affect inflation. Fourth, the export growth rate has greatly reduced the import policy. Due to the further deterioration of the European debt crisis, the high unemployment rate in the US economy, weak consumer demand and the slowdown of the domestic economy, the growth rate of production in major ports in Guangdong has slowed down. According to data released by the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters, the cargo throughput of major ports in Guangdong Province was 95.453 million tons, an increase of 10.1%, an increase of 8.1 percentage points year-on-year; the container throughput of major ports was 34.118 million TEUs, an increase of 5.9%. The growth rate dropped by 15.0 percentage points year-on-year. Although the customs statistics show that the export value of Guangdong is still growing, but after deducting the price factor, the increase in export volume has dropped significantly. According to a survey conducted by Luo Baihui, secretary general of the International Model Association, on the operation of member companies, foreign-invested SMEs still face market shrinkage, reduced orders, the impact of RMB appreciation and the substantial increase in corporate comprehensive costs, resulting in a decline in profit margins. At the same time, from the analysis of the changes in container throughput of the four major ports in Shenzhen, foreign trade imports and exports have continued to shrink. In September, the container throughput of the four ports of Yantian Port, Chiwan Port, Shekou Port and Dachan Bay in Shenzhen was lower than the average increase in the previous nine months for the first time, and both showed negative growth. According to the statistics released by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products at the Canton Fair, at the 110th Canton Fair, the turnover of mechanical and electrical products to the United States fell by 33.1% compared with the previous session, and also decreased by 21.3% for the European market. With the outbreak of the European debt crisis, the world economy has been affected, and the Pearl River Delta, which has many foreign export enterprises, is also the fastest affected. According to data released recently by the Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs, the import and export of Guangdong Province in September was US$80.03 billion, an increase of 8.3%, down 4.4 percentage points from August and lower than the national increase by more than 10 percentage points. It is expected that the impact in the fourth quarter will be relatively large, and the situation will be severe in the first quarter of next year. Since the beginning of this year, under the guidance of policy support for expanding imports, the trade surplus has been continuously narrowing. According to customs data, from January to September this year, China’s trade surplus reached US$107.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%. The trade surplus in September was 14.51 billion US dollars, narrowing 12.4%. Wen Jiabao, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, stressed on October 13 that when investigating foreign trade enterprises in Guangdong, it is necessary to actively expand imports, pay close attention to formulating guidelines for strengthening imports to promote trade balance, and improve policies and measures such as import discounts, import credits, and import tariffs. Create more favorable conditions for enterprises to expand imports. Earlier on September 29, the Ministry of Commerce held the 2011 China Import Forum in Shanghai, proposing to take further measures to expand imports, improve the level of trade facilitation, and promote the balance of international trade. And how to expand imports, how to reduce taxes and other support policies are also expected to be introduced soon. Although the promotion policy at the national level has not yet been officially introduced, the local authorities have begun to take active actions. As the largest foreign trade province, Guangdong has recently introduced the "Several Opinions on Promoting Imports". While stabilizing exports, it has actively expanded the scale of imports to ensure that the province's import growth in 2011 exceeded the original target of 8.5%. The number of digits has increased. Statistics show that in the first three quarters of this year, Guangdong's exports were US$391.91 billion, up 22.2%, accounting for 28.1% of the country's total exports; imports were US$282.4 billion, up 18.3%, accounting for 22% of the country's total imports. In the first three quarters, Guangdong's foreign trade surplus was 109.51 billion US dollars. In the case of a decline in the country's surplus, Guangdong still increased by 33.5% compared with US$82 billion in the same period last year. Therefore, how to expand imports in Guangdong and maintain trade balance is very important for the country. On October 25, Guangdong Province held a provincial conference on promoting import work in Guangzhou, proposing to expand imports as a breakthrough, focus on expanding the scale of imports, optimizing the import structure, comprehensively improving the comprehensive benefits of imports, and giving full play to the promotion of industrial transformation and upgrading. The important role of macroeconomic balance. The "Opinions" proposes to focus on importing strategic emerging industries, technological transformation of traditional industries, energy-saving emission reduction and low-carbon economy, advanced technologies, key equipment and scarce resource products urgently needed for high-tech and high value-added industries; focusing on easing energy and raw materials Bottleneck constraints, stability and guidance of bulk commodity imports; expansion of service imports, consolidation of processing trade imports. "The continuous appreciation of the renminbi is actually a good opportunity to expand imports. By expanding imports of raw materials and other products, this will also help reduce the production costs of domestic production enterprises and improve product quality," said Luo Baihui, secretary general of the International Model Association. In terms of policy support, Guangdong has set up special funds for import promotion. From 2012 to 2014, the provincial financial arrangement will allocate 250 million yuan to subsidize the import of advanced technologies, products and equipment that are listed in the national and provincial encouraged import technologies and product catalogues; Import loans are subject to interest subsidies; support is provided for import bases, import distribution systems, insured import credit insurance, import promotion and public services. In terms of tax incentives, the "Opinions" propose that the country will actively strive to reduce the import tariffs on some energy, raw materials and consumer goods. Fifth, the national property market has turned into a turning point. The trend of housing prices is an important part of the people's livelihood. In late October, the color of the national property market has changed drastically. After the depression of Jinjiuyin 10, the first thing that can't help is Shanghai. Following the sudden price cuts of 18% to 40% in Shanghai, such as Longhu, Zhonghai and Xinghewan; the price cuts in Hangzhou and Ningbo in the Yangtze River Delta, followed by Vanke, Longhu and other real estate companies in the country began to cut prices substantially. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen prices have stopped rising or brought decorative hardware opportunities. House prices will affect the enthusiasm of buying a house, and buying a house will drive the decoration hardware. The recently introduced policy provides convenience for those white-collar workers who are still stationed or wish to come to the big cities such as “Northern Shangguangâ€. First, Beijing allowed foreigners who met the conditions to apply for public rental housing. The Ministry of Housing and Construction said that it would abandon the policy of withdrawing the provident fund for renting. Due to the strong demand for real estate and real estate as an important pillar of the Chinese economy, it is expected that the national housing price will be in the future. Keep down the space for a while. Luo Baihui, the invited researcher of the China International Economic Development Research Center and the secretary-general of the International Model Association, believes that the decline in house prices will be between 10% and 15%. The sooner the price turning point occurs, the sooner the sales will rise, the government is harsh. Regulations, such as the purchase restriction policy, will be reduced sooner. Therefore, the turning point of housing prices appears as early as possible, not a bad thing, but is conducive to the healthy development of the real estate market and the Chinese economy. At the same time, the supply of 10 million sets of affordable housing will also drive the development of related industries. Therefore, it is not necessary to worry too much that the regulation and control policies will have a greater impact on upstream and downstream industries and the economy such as steel, building materials, engineering and construction, hardware and electrical machinery, and mold machinery. 6. Accelerate the implementation of real estate tax At present, many small and medium-sized service enterprises have outsourcing business. While increasing the value-added tax of enterprises, enterprises will also bear the business tax burden brought by outsourcing. Business tax cannot be deducted, and heavy tax burden is not conducive to the development and export of service companies. Therefore, the difficulty of running small and medium-sized enterprises is not only due to the implementation of tightening monetary policy, but also the need for financial support. Considering that business tax is the main source of local fiscal revenue, the reform involves the relationship between local finance and central finance, and progress may be slow. If local finances want to get more income, they will inevitably introduce real estate taxes as the main tax for local finance. A few days ago, Chinese Assistant Minister of Finance Wang Bao pointed out at the meeting that China will speed up the implementation of the property tax, so that it can further play its role in the regulation of the real estate market. It is expected that by the end of this year, the housing information systems of 40 key cities across the country will be initially networked, and administrative purchase restrictions will be abolished, and the implementation of property tax will be accelerated. In countries and regions around the world, the purpose of property tax collection is generally to provide daily public services in the community, including school district education, public health, and community policing. The larger the housing area, the more manpower and material resources are consumed. So people with too many properties should pay more for public service fees by paying property taxes. The introduction of property tax, the short-term adverse impact on the hardware and building materials industry closely connected with the real estate is inevitable, will reduce the purchase of hardware furniture decoration to a certain extent, the sales of hardware enterprises will have a certain degree Falling, even encountering a survival dilemma. Luo Baihui believes that in the long run, the introduction of property tax will promote the healthy and stable development of the hardware industry. On the one hand, property tax can curb speculation on housing and guarantee rigid demand; on the other hand, the property tax levied can be used to strengthen the construction of affordable housing, so that more people can afford housing, and people need hardware furniture. It will be even stronger.
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