Construction Securities (12.6): Copper, Aluminum

The "Risk Warning" section of the magazine aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It is used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In actual operation, investors need to trade according to their own short-term midlines. Different strategies and different varieties of fluctuations in the characteristics of a specific grasp. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ★ The reverse run range with newer closing price may be less than 2%. The reverse run range with newer closing price may be greater than 2%. ★ The reverse run range with newer closing price may be greater than 3 % Futures price may be greater than 4% in the reverse direction of newer closings. ★ Reverse price may be greater than 5% from newer closing prices. Risk Warning: Bulls risk: ★ Short risk: ★ Pre-roll alert: Orient: LME3 this week Monthly copper showed a trend of oscillating decline. It was supported by the continuous weakness of the US dollar and the continuous decline of copper stocks during the first half of the week, maintaining a high level of volatility. However, due to the upward trend of the US dollar on Thursday, the market expects that the US dollar will rebound in the near future. Under pressure from the profit-taking, copper prices fell sharply and closed below US$3,000. They rebounded on the impact of the US dollar's new record low on Friday, closing at 3028 U.S. dollars per ton, down 57.5 from Friday. USD/ton, the volatility ranged from 3141 to 2965 USD/ton, and the weekly line is a small Yin line with a long lower lead. This week, LME March aluminum followed copper prices and closed lower at US$1811.5/t, down US$43/t from last Friday. The volatility ranged from US$1862.5 to US$1782.5/t, and the weekly line was the Zhongyin line with lead wires. LME copper stocks continued to show a downward trend this week, with final inventory of 57,000 tons, a drop of 2,450 tons from the previous week. This week, LME aluminum stocks also showed a decrease in momentum, which was a decrease of 24,875,000 tons from the previous week and a stock of 790,125 tons at the weekend. Shanghai Stock Exchange increased its copper inventories by 3,194 tons to 260,452 tons this week, and aluminum inventories fell by 4,469 tons to 99,738,000 tons. The larger factor affecting the price of copper this week is the trend of the US dollar. In the near-term weakening of the U.S. dollar, the European Central Bank also expressed its concern over the movement of the U.S. dollar. The remarks that the European Central Bank may intervene in the market continued to spread. The rally in the US dollar triggered a sharp fall in copper prices. The renewed bottom of the US dollar on Friday caused the copper price to fail to show that the current copper market has reached a more subtle situation. The relationship between the price of copper and the US dollar may evolve into a depreciation of the US dollar. The price of copper remained high and the dollar rebounded. The price of copper fell, and the short-term action should be the main reason for the rebound. Ma Hongqing: The LME copper price rose on Friday due to the impact of the US dollar slump, but the selling pressure was extremely heavy around 3040/3050. The sharp decline in copper prices on Thursday has begun to indicate the formation of heads, while domestic spot prices have been on the 32,000 line. Copper prices are not recognized. At present, the price of copper is supported by the depreciation of the US dollar, and the large-scale squeeze of the dollar is only a reaction to the depreciation of the US dollar. Shanghai CU CU 502 is expected to test the pressure level of 28300 on Monday. We suggest investors to establish a short position in this zone with a stop loss at 28500, support at 28000, followed by 27800. Overseas Express: LME Market Report: London, December 3 news: The London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal saw the trend on Friday afternoon, late-night mixed trading ended mixed, but still within the near-term range. Traders said, The worse-than-expected employment report issued by the United States affected the market, but the impact was modest. The metal market had a dilemma between fund selling, traders, and consumer buying. In the United States, the non-agricultural employment population increased by 112,000 in November. Estimated 180,000, October data revised to 30.3 million. A trader said, "The intraday swing, but the closing is still good." Three-month copper always fluctuates around 3,000 US dollars to close at 3,002 yuan per ton. The US dollar closed at 2,990 on Thursday. The trader said, "The copper performance is quite good. It does break down, but it still holds up support levels to carry out range volatility." This period of copper price fluctuation range is quite large, but the oscillation amplitude is less than the beginning of October. The market has been high to reach 3,175 The US dollar, which ended up being weighed down by the selling of funds, plunged 16% this week. The weaker technical indicators prompted the fund to sell, causing the price of copper to fall by about $100 this week. He said, "Copper has failed to stand firm above 3,100. However, we have seen consumers start buying after falling to the current level.” Although the dollar weakened again on the 3rd, copper prices did not rise enough, and investors feared that there would be more profit-taking sales. On the 3rd, London’s copper inventories fell by 1,700 tons to 57,000 tons, mostly due to the decline in Singapore’s inventory. The three-month aluminum market is in a difficult direction, but consumers accept it on a bargain-hunting basis. Aluminum fell below the support level of 1820-1830 USD/ton on the 2nd and fell sharply to hit a low of 1,786 USD/ton. It ended up falling $3 to 1,808. Because of the sharp drop on the 2nd, many investors are reluctant to open positions on aluminum contracts. Three-month nickel fell by 75 US dollars as the fund's sell-off weighed at 12,975. Traders' buying then led nickel prices to recover most of the decline. The three-month zinc price rose 8 US dollars to 1,172 yuan per ton. The three-month lead rose 11.50 US dollars to 951.50. The three-month tin price was 8,810/8,830 US dollars per ton, higher than Thursday's 8,775. COMEX Copper Market Report: NEW YORK, December 3 News: Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) closed higher on Friday, reversing earlier losses. Under the support of the weak dollar, short-selling by self-operators and traders The price of the stocks rose higher during the period. A market source stated that “the decline in copper prices was attributable to the exchange rate movements. Today, the euro hit new highs and stimulated stronger copper prices. It may be a bit difficult for the market to rise above 1.4 US dollars. It may be between 1.35-1.4. Consolidation for a period of time. "The more active March session closed up 1.65 cents today, reported at 1.3915 US dollars per pound, close to the high end of the 1.3610-1.3930 trading range. Traders said that as the US dollar once again hit a new low against the euro, COMEX copper A strong rebound occurred. It is expected that the recent resistance of the COMEX Copper March contract will be at 1.40 USD/lb, with support at 1.3750 and 1.35 USD/lb. Spot 12-month contract fell slightly by 0.2 cents to US$1.4350. The estimated volume was approximately 14,000 lots, compared to 14,316 on Thursday. On the 3rd, London’s copper inventories fell by 1,700 tons to 57,000 tons, and on the 2nd, New York’s copper inventories decreased by 517 tons. To 41453 short tons.

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