Domestic Potash Fertilizer: Difficult to See in the Short Term

Last week, the domestic potash fertilizer market remained generally stable, and the price in some areas declined slightly around 50 yuan, and the transaction was still deserted.

According to the first-half financial report released by Salt Lake, in the first half of 2013, Salt Lake achieved a revenue of 4.13 billion yuan, which was lower than expected. In the first half of the year, the output of potassium chloride totaled 1.3721 million tons, an increase of 13.28% from 121.12 million tons in the same period of last year. In the first half of the year, the sales volume of potassium chloride was 1.5594 million tons, an increase of 18.84% over the same period last year of 1,132,200 tons. Under the premise of increasing production and sales volume, the main reason for the decline in profits was the decline in the price of potassium chloride. In the first half of the year, the average selling price of salt lake potassium chloride was 1,199.33 yuan, a decrease of 17.3% compared with the same period of last year. As a leading domestic potash fertilizer company, the Salt Lake Financial Report reflects the downturn in the domestic potash fertilizer market this year.

After entering the second half of the year, the potash market is difficult to keep up with itself in the context of the overall downturn in the fertilizer market. The current season belongs to the off-season of traditional sales of potash fertilizer, which ended with summer fertilizers. The preparation of fertilizers in the fall has not yet started. The utilization rate of downstream compound fertilizer plants is low, and the use of fertilizers in autumn is dominated by high-nitrogen and high-phosphorus fertilizers, which further reduces the demand for potash fertilizer raw materials. At the same time, the supply of potash fertilizer continues to increase: Qinghai Province has started normal construction and shipping; in terms of shipping, there are still new ships coming to the south port to arrive in Hong Kong, port transactions are sluggish, and the pressure on the port is high.

Internationally, after the news that Uralkali left the BPC sales alliance, the potash fertilizer market around the world is difficult to change. Approximately 20% to 25% of stocks of potash fertilizer companies are sold, and it is expected that the total market value will evaporate nearly 20 billion U.S. dollars. Various articles similar to the “potash fertilizer regulations will change” and “the potash monopoly market will end” flood the Internet. But in a sense, the market is not so pessimistic. Before Uralkali's purchase of Silvinit, the former Soviet potash supplier had only BPC and IPC. Now it is only once again becoming two potash suppliers. Although there will be competition, it is currently coming. Look at the price system is still very difficult to collapse, after all, the maximization of interests is the fundamental pursuit of capitalists.

The fundamental reason why the international market is unstable is that the core reason is that supply exceeds demand. In the first quarter, the market price of potash fertilizers in various parts of the country could still increase slightly every month. After entering the second quarter, the growth rate slowed down but remained stable. From the second half of the year, first, the US market prices fell, followed by the EU market. After Uralkali released its BPC news, last week's CIF prices in Southeast Asia and the Commonwealth of Independent States began to decline. According to data from international industry organizations, the international potash fertilizer market will continue to exceed supply in the next five years. From 2013 to 2017, the demand for potash fertilizer will be 29 million tons, 29.9 million tons, 31.2 million tons, 32.3 million tons and 33.2 million tons, respectively, while potash fertilizer The supply amounted to 49.7 million tons, 50.4 million tons, 54.5 million tons, 56.6 million tons and 59.6 million tons respectively.

Vladislav Baumgertner, CEO of Uralkali, also recently stated that the company will start production at full capacity in August with the aim of pursuing sales rather than price stability.

On the whole, the domestic potash fertilizer market continues to be sluggish, with lower willingness to receive goods from the downstream, and the sentiment of the market is growing. With the continuous increase in border trade and port shipments, and the normal production and shipment of domestic potash fertilizer companies, it is still difficult for the market to reach a low point in the short term.

The domestic potash fertilizer market continued to be sluggish, and the willingness of downstream customers to receive goods was low, and the market sentiment increased. With the continuous increase in border trade and port shipments, and the normal production and shipment of domestic potash fertilizer companies, it is still difficult for the market to reach a low point in the short term.