Abstract In 2012, the background of the development of the photovoltaic industry was: the global economy was weak, the European debt crisis continued to ferment, and the brutal integration of the photovoltaic industry began. In the past, the European countries that accounted for 80% of the global photovoltaic power plant installation market drastically reduced power generation subsidies to European and American countries to China's photovoltaics. Product input...
The background of the development of the photovoltaic industry in 2012 is: the global economy is sluggish, the European debt crisis continues to ferment, and the brutal integration of the photovoltaic industry begins. In the past, European countries that accounted for 80% of the global photovoltaic power plant installation market drastically reduced power generation subsidies to European and American countries to China's photovoltaic products. Enter the tight trade situation represented by “double reverseâ€. 2012 is a year in which the global PV industry supply and demand relationship and trade structure requirements change; the background of PV industry development in 2013 should be: the global economy is difficult to change, the European debt crisis and the US fiscal cliff may no longer continue to deteriorate, the photovoltaic industry Continued brutal integration, the European PV terminal demand market has further narrowed, and demand in emerging markets such as Japan, the United States, and China has increased, and a new photovoltaic industry pattern has taken shape. Based on the above market background, under the premise that the technical route does not undergo unexpected major changes, we have the following judgments on the development direction of the global PV market in 2013: First, the installed volume of the terminal market has grown steadily. It is estimated that the installed capacity of global PV power plants in 2012 and 2013 will be around 30GW and above 35GW, respectively, and basically maintain a stable growth rate of 10-20% per year. Among them: the European countries represented by Germany will change the subsidies in 2012, the plan will decline but the installation volume has not dropped significantly. The means of regulation of subsidies will make the installation volume of the terminal market relatively large in comparison with 2012; Japan The overall trend is affected by the safety of nuclear power. Under the influence of two key factors, such as tight power supply and attractive subsidies for photovoltaic power generation, it will become the fastest growing country. However, the attitude of the new government to nuclear power generation is worthy of attention; China and the United States will continue to maintain steady growth. China will increase slightly on the basis of 5-6 GW installations in 2012; photovoltaic power plants such as India and South America Emerging markets will be accompanied by the improvement of financing methods, and there will be a steady increase in the scale of installation and the number of emerging countries. From the past history, the actual installed capacity of global photovoltaic power plants is generally greater than the forecasted amount.
Second, the product price market bottomed out and industrial integration entered the second stage. By the end of 2012, the global PV module supply and demand relationship was about 60GW to 30GW, which was slightly more reasonable than the previous year, but it has not changed the pattern of serious supply exceeding demand. Affected by this, the integration of the photovoltaic industry started in mid-2011, so that except for a few enterprises, the sales prices of most enterprises in the whole industry chain at the production stage are around the average cost line or even below. The basic situation of the market in 2013 is to continue to adjust supply and demand, and continuously strengthen the crowding out effect. The irrational price competition for more than a year is about to enter the final stage. With a large number of companies with insufficient competitiveness being integrated or being squeezed out of the market and other factors that cause irrational price disputes, product prices will continue to bottom out in early 2013, at some time during the year. The stage of this industrial integration reached the bottom, and began to use the average cost line as the narrow fluctuation of the central axis, and transitioned to the stage of rational price competition with technology leading and scale effect guiding cost reduction. This transition marks the end of a two-year irrational price competition phase beginning in mid-2011, and the beginning of a two-year rational price competition phase. In the first phase, the sales price of Chinese products played an important role in determining global market prices. It is hoped that the sales price of Chinese products will play an important role in the price adjustment of the global market in the second stage of the stage of rational price competition, which is guided by technology and scale.
Third, the technical advantage began to play a more important influence. Before 2012, due to the sudden increase in market demand and the market pressure of excessive competition in the later stage, although the basis for the impact of technological progress on market progress exists, the influence is limited. Mature markets dominated by technological advancement will begin in 2013. Several aspects are worthy of attention: 1) Major breakthroughs and improvements in polysilicon raw material production methods, thin films and energy storage technologies will have a certain impact on market development; 2) Component conversion rates under existing production methods It is difficult to make major breakthroughs, even if there is a breakthrough, it is difficult to have large-scale production; 3) The technical standards for market access will be more detailed and strict, and will certainly have a greater impact on the acceleration of product technology and stable service life of enterprises. It’s forced to work. In short, the photovoltaic product market in 2013 will be the first year of development through a decade of development, from the main stage of reducing costs by relying on technology to the stage of relying on technological progress to improve competitiveness.
Fourth, the policy environment is calm and stable. The photovoltaic industry is an industry that closely integrates policies and markets. The policy background is one of the most important aspects of analyzing the PV market. It is also the key to determining the installed capacity of a national PV power plant and determining the total installed capacity. Overall, the photovoltaic power generation subsidy policy in Europe and Australia's early installation countries is based on photovoltaic power generation has reached a certain level, and further support for the photovoltaic industry is strict. In the emerging markets of photovoltaic power generation, due to the increasing strengthening of factors such as energy security and reduction of carbon emissions, the attitude towards photovoltaic power generation is more positive; specifically: Germany, France, and Italy have further clarified the development direction of encouraging miniaturization, and the total amount Control; Australia may suspend subsidies for photovoltaic power generation from 2013; Japan may not be able to change its focus on the development of photovoltaic power generation after changing its leaders; the United States is re-elected as President Obama, whether he has always supported the development of new energy or “left the industry†From the perspective of the United States, it will maintain a positive attitude in the development of the photovoltaic industry. Whether the US Secretary of Energy, Zhu Xiwen, who has always supported the development of new energy sources, is worthy of attention; whether the Middle East oil-producing countries with strong economic strength will have major PV policies and construction projects are significant events; in 2012, the Chinese government’s Support has never been clear and firm, and will continue to maintain this positive policy background in 2013.
5. The new global PV market is about to begin. The trade dispute between Europe and the United States and India in 2012, which is the “double-reverse†input to China's PV products, is not only a reaction to international free trade, but also a global, European-based PV market. A strong correction of the pattern. Before 2012, affected by the global economic integration and the single terminal market dominated by Europe, the PV market has experienced a decline in the terminal market share in Europe and Japan and the United States in 2013 after three major stages of supply shortage and supply exceeding demand. Under the two major trends of rising market share in emerging markets such as China, a new and diversified market structure has begun to take shape; under the influence of the brutal integration of industries and the pursuit of rational supply and demand, a new and diverse industrial landscape will soon appear. In line with this, a new trade pattern emerged and PV trade competition became the norm. In this process, China's status as a processing power is difficult to change, and various forms of Chinese PV products will still occupy 50% of the global PV terminal market share in 2013. China's PV industry has transitioned from the globalization stage of trade to the stage of industrial globalization. In China, the construction of the terminal market affected by policy will move from a single large-scale to a large-scale and distributed miniaturization.
6. Constantly explore new business models. With the steady enlargement of the photovoltaic terminal market and the increasingly cruel competition during the industrial integration, the past, middle and lower divisions have a clear division of labor, and the business model with a single trading relationship will be changed and enriched, and the market-oriented means of promoting the long-term development of the photovoltaic industry will be continuously explored. It is specifically manifested in: 1) subject to fierce competition in industrial integration and the impact of short-term profit points on the terminal market, or due to the transformation of enterprises, or the need to reduce inventory, the upper and middle reaches of photovoltaic products production or BT (construction-transfer) The way of entering the terminal market by means of strategic holdings has increased; 2) The business model represented by diversification of financing means has emerged and improved around the main direction of the terminal market. End-market integrated solutions such as contract energy management, equipment leasing, and component warranty insurance are being introduced more; 3) Photovoltaic products used around daily life are becoming more and more abundant, and more consumers are gradually increasing with the improvement of quality and price. It is accepted to explore a form of consumption of photovoltaic power generation terminals without subsidies. In 2013, while continuing to maintain a single model of processing industry led by technology enhancement, the short-term focus of the industry is to provide a comprehensive service solution model for the terminal market. In this process, China should increase research and trials in this area, improve the industrial development environment, vigorously innovate financial support means, and seize the opportunities in the transformation of business models.
7. Industrial integration is accelerating, and competitive enterprises are rapidly emerging. In the long run, the reasonable demand for the number of large enterprises in the PV industry chain should be around ten, which determines the necessity, cruelty and long-term nature of this industry integration. In 2012, the industrial integration in Europe and the United States was relatively deep, and China's integration by various factors was extremely limited. In 2013, it was a year when uncompetitive enterprises withdrew from the market in large numbers, and a small number of competitive enterprises gradually got rid of the shortage of funds and expanded market share; it was the year when most enterprises faced the decision of life and death and development direction; The number of mergers and acquisitions began to increase. “Great and beautiful†enterprises with promising prospects should have such conditions as: continuous financing capability, brand influence, scale advantage, technological superiority and business development model suitable for them; “small and beautiful†enterprises should have such conditions : Unique technology, business model and related capabilities for sustainable development. In the future development, competitive companies with different technical routes and different industrial chain stages represented by First Sunshine, Poly GCL, Yingli and Tianhua Sunshine will have greater and sustainable development possibilities. Industrial integration in 2013 will be concentrated in China and Taiwan.
8. China's photovoltaic industry environment will be greatly improved. Before 2011, due to the fact that the domestic market was almost zero, the development environment of China's photovoltaic industry was extremely imperfect. Beginning in 2012, with the rapid expansion of the domestic market, the country's attitude towards supporting the development of the photovoltaic industry is clear and firm, especially since the second half of the year, the environment of China's photovoltaic industry has continued to undergo unexpected changes. Specifically, the development goals and development routes are gradually clear, the domestic terminal market brought about by subsidy policies is continuously enlarged, passive financing policies are introduced, industrial technology and access standards are discussed more, and grid companies are active in grid-connecting photovoltaic power generation. It is stated that the power system reform may be re-raised, and the photovoltaic industry is increasingly valued by public opinion. This means that the Chinese PV industry environment has begun to change from quantitative to qualitative. In 2013, this process will continue, and the transformation from protecting the industry to promoting the long-term development of the industry will continue to be realized, and the arduous transformation from a large PV manufacturing country to a strong country will continue.
In short, in 2013, China's PV industry will remain a year of cruel integration. The terminal market will be steadily amplifying and the price decline will slow down. The profit opportunities will continue to tilt towards the terminal market and the market resources will accelerate to competitive enterprises. year.
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