Abstract The best inventions will never end. When German engineer Carl Bentz invented the first oil-powered car, he invented not only the engine with wheels, but also the new industry that revolutionized the social structure. Similarly, the British Computer Science...
The best inventions will never end. When German engineer Carl Bentz invented the first oil-powered car, he invented not only the engine with wheels, but also the new industry that revolutionized the social structure. Similarly, British computer scientist Tim Berners-Lee not only built the world's first website, but also laid the foundation for the World Wide Web. It is impossible for these two pioneers to anticipate the impact of what they have done. Economic decision-makers should learn the following lessons in 2015 and beyond: the industry born out of inventions is as vibrant as the invention itself. The experience of 2014 tells us that the above lessons have not yet been fully remembered.
When Google launched, people were surprised to find that if they typed a few words into the computer, they could find everything they wanted to know. The operating mechanism behind it is technically complex, but the result is quite straightforward: it is a page of text containing 10 blue links. This is indeed better than anything, but it is not as good as today's standards.
So our entrepreneurial partners Larry Page and Sergey Brin continue to improve like other successful inventors. They started to introduce pictures. After all, people want more than just words. After the 2000 Grammy Awards ceremony, the above trend began to appear. Jennifer Lopez’s green dress at the award ceremony attracted the attention of the whole world. At the time, this became the most popular search term in history. But we can't give the user what they want: Jennifer Lopez is wearing the dress. Google Image Search came into being.
The map is another typical example. When people search for addresses on Google, they are not looking for links to this street, they want to know how to get there. So we made a map that can be clicked, dragged, and easily viewed. Now maps have become an integral part of Google, so most users may not be able to imagine what a map looks like.
The same is true of many of our changes. Our search results have improved over time. The weather in your location can show you the results of the next few days, saving you a lot of time and effort.
But Google’s efforts to answer questions directly have led to complaints from the European Commission. Companies like Expedia, Yelp, and TripAdvisor have suggested that Google search has taken away valuable traffic on their sites, causing their businesses to fall into a competitive situation.
A few years ago, a lawyer from one of our competing companies drew a painting with a coastline and sporadic islands. He drew a dotted line and said it was the only ferry connecting the island to the mainland. He wants to say that Google is like a ferry, the only way to browse the Internet.
The reality is that there are many ways to browse the web. If you want to see the news, you can log in directly to your favorite news site. If you want to buy something, you can log in to Zalando and Amazon to search for models and prices, browse reviews and pay for purchases.
The problem is that the economic situation we are in is not only full of competition, but also changing. This year, our industry has ushered in important milestones. People spend more time on the mobile side than the desktop. The time spent on the desktop has dropped to only 40%. And people take a different approach when using mobile and desktop. The application is used by seven-eighths of the mobile end time.
Many people think that no competitor can beat companies like Facebook, Google, Apple and Amazon. I don't think so. Big companies can be quickly surpassed. Just a few years ago, companies like Yahoo, Nokia, Microsoft and Blackberry seemed unmatched. Since then they seem to be swallowed up by the wave of high-tech companies.
There are big differences between Google’s operation and regulation of other companies that are labeled as “gatekeepersâ€. We are not a ferry, a railway, a grid or a telecommunications network, providing you with one-way, non-competitive space services. People have the choice, and if we are no longer useful, our users will start to lose. The industry threshold is almost negligible because we are only one click away from our competitors.
Someone in a garage is aiming at Google, and they may take action in 2015. I know this snack because we stayed in the garage not long ago.
People rarely expect the turmoil brought about by major technological revolutions. The telegraph ruined the post, radio and television disrupted the newspaper, and the plane ended the ocean liner. Inventions are always full of energy. This also explains why the future is always as exciting as it used to be.
(The author is the executive chairman of Google. Copyright: ProjectSyndicate, 2014.)
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