India's cotton export ceiling problem is complicated

The issue of whether or not to cancel the export of Indian cotton has been debated for a long time and is becoming increasingly entangled. The Indian Cotton Advisory Committee (CAB) has lowered its 2010-11 production forecast to 31.2 million bales (1 bale = 170 kg), which is lower than the 32.9 million bales estimated in February.

As the Ministry of Agriculture hopes to cancel 5.5 million packs of cotton exports in 2010-11 (starting in October) to help farmers, this issue has become the focus of controversy. At the same time, the textile ministry argued that the cancellation of exports will lead to further price increases in the domestic market. Recently, the Advisory Committee announced that due to the reduction in the number of arrivals in the market, production forecasts were lowered. The new estimate is 5.78% higher than last year's 29.5 million bales. The second estimate of the Ministry of Agriculture showed that the cotton output in 2010-11 was 33.9 million bales, which was almost 40% higher than last year's output. Ministry of Agriculture officials said that the focus of debate between the Ministry of Textiles and the Ministry of Agriculture was on cotton production and arrivals.

The government has capped the number of cotton exports this year at 5.5 million bales. Last year, India exported 8.3 million bales of cotton, although output decreased. Indian Cotton Company stated that in January-February, cotton prices jumped by 38%.

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