On the 11th, the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Report on China's Foreign Trade Situation (Fall 2011)". According to the report, in 2012, China's foreign trade maintained a certain foundation and favorable conditions for its stable development, but there are more and more uncertain and unstable factors restricting the stable development of foreign trade. The main risk facing China's foreign trade development in 2012 comes from the increasingly complex external environment. From the outside, the world economy is expected to continue its recovery, but the downside risks increase. Judging from the current situation, the world economy is expected to continue its recovery in 2012. As long as there is no major external shock, a renewed crisis or “secondary recession†is a small probability event. However, the international financial crisis has erupted for three years, and its deep-seated influences are still being revealed. The old diseases have not healed, and new injuries have been added. This has further highlighted the long-term, arduous and complex recovery. The world economic growth rate may be long-term low. Hey, facing the serious risks of going down. The International Monetary Fund recently lowered its 2012 world economic growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.0%. The risks and challenges facing the world economy in 2012 are mainly as follows: First, the risk of sovereign debt in Europe has risen. The scale of national debt in Europe is unprecedented. At present, the European sovereign debt crisis is spreading from marginal countries such as Greece to core countries such as Italy and Spain. From the public finance sector to the banking system, market confidence is extremely fragile, causing the financial market to continue to fluctuate greatly. The debt chains of member states are intertwined and economically connected, and the crisis has deepened and dragged down the possibility of the banking system and the real economy. As some national sovereign debts continue to enter the peak period of repayment, if effective rescue measures cannot be introduced in time, once the risk of European banking industry is concentrated, it will surely have a new and major impact on the world economic and financial system. Second, the dynamics of the recovery of the world economy are still insufficient. Judging from the current situation, the dynamics of the recovery of the world economy have recovered from the outbreak of the international financial crisis, but the overall situation is that the policy support effect is weakened, the traditional growth momentum is still weak, and the new growth momentum has not yet formed. The unemployment rate in the major developed economies is high, the real estate market continues to be sluggish, and consumer investment demand is weak. New growth points represented by technological innovation have not yet formed. The fiscal and financial policy space is very limited. The fiscal austerity policy adopted to deal with the debt problem will weaken the economic growth momentum. The “liquidity trap†leads to the restriction of the effectiveness of the expansionary monetary policy. Emerging economies are facing the dual pressures of rising inflation and falling economic growth. Third, global inflationary pressures are unlikely to ease in the short term. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, major economies have successively implemented ultra-loose monetary policies, and global liquidity has been seriously oversupplied, and global inflationary pressures have continued to increase. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of emerging markets and developing countries have “high feverâ€, and the inflation level of developed economies has continued to rise overall. In September, the consumer price index of Vietnam, India and Brazil rose by 22.4%, 9.7% and 7.3% respectively; the United States and the United Kingdom rose by 3.9% and 5.2% respectively, and the Eurozone exceeded the 2% regulation target set by the European Central Bank for ten consecutive months. At present, major developed countries generally strengthen the loose monetary policy. The UK has launched a new round of quantitative easing monetary policy. The European Central Bank maintains low interest rates and will restart long-term refinancing operations. The United States announced that it will maintain low interest rates until mid-2013 and launch a $400 billion distortion operation. Monetary policies in some emerging countries such as Turkey and Brazil have also shifted from inflation to growth. In the coming period, the risk of large-scale disorderly flow of international capital will increase, and the commodity market may fluctuate frequently and the global inflation situation is not optimistic. Fourth, the interference from non-economic factors is increasing. The stagnation of the international financial crisis may further affect the social stability of the countries concerned. In some countries, problems such as inflation, unemployment, social security and increased polarization are superimposed, which may lead to political instability, social conflicts, and various risk trigger points. Unpredictable impact on the world economy. Since last year, large-scale mass protests or riots have erupted in many countries including the United Kingdom, Germany, Greece, France and Thailand. Recently, the “Occupy Wall Street†demonstrations aimed at denying the financial system's partiality of power and wealth have spread to more than 1,500 cities on four continents in just two months. In addition, the turmoil in the Middle East continues, directly affecting the stable supply of global oil. The slowdown in the recovery of the world economy and the increase in downside risks will inevitably bring many risks and challenges to the stable development of China's foreign trade. First, the international market demand is sluggish. The pace of recovery in the world economy has slowed down, the effect of replenishing stocks has weakened, and external demand is likely to continue to shrink next year. The US economic recovery is weak, the unemployment rate remains high, the real estate market continues to slump, and consumer pessimism about the future economic outlook continues to deteriorate. The US consumer confidence index fell from around 70 at the beginning of the year to 45.4 in September. Due to the sovereign debt crisis in the EU, member states have to tighten their finances, which will not only constrain economic recovery, but will inevitably affect welfare expenditures such as social security and pensions, and weaken consumers' willingness to spend. The EU consumer confidence index for September was negative at 19.1, the lowest in 25 months. The slowdown in economic growth in emerging economies will also curb demand growth and constrain Chinese companies to further explore new markets. In the first nine months of this year, Brazil's import growth rate dropped by 19.7 percentage points over the same period last year. Second, the difficulty of financing has increased the risk of shrinking external demand. The European banking system is in trouble due to the sovereign debt crisis. Various banks have shrunk their business scope and reduced risk tolerance. As a result, credit monetary tightening, financing and blood transfusion functions have been blocked, trade financing has been deeply affected, and the risk of shrinking external demand has increased. The US banking industry is far from the shadow of the financial crisis. The slowdown in economic growth has reduced the demand for loans. Low interest rates have reduced the return on investment. The increase in market volatility has increased investment risks. Strengthening supervision has raised operating costs. The bigger it is. The instability of the financial system will be a new variable affecting the development of future international trade. Third, the economic and trade friction situation is even more severe. Although the number and value of trade remedy cases against China have declined this year, the friction intensity has not diminished, and trade remedy measures such as anti-dumping and countervailing have been repeatedly abused, and policy and institutional frictions have become more prominent. The economic recession of some developed countries overlaps with the electoral political cycle, the politicization tendency of economic and trade issues is obvious, and trade protectionism against China has once again risen. All kinds of "China's Responsibility Theory" emerge in an endless stream, requiring China to assume international responsibility beyond its own ability. Fourth, non-economic factors may have an unpredictable impact on China's foreign trade development. The turmoil in the Middle East cannot affect the impact of Chinese companies on the Middle East market and the stabilization of oil supply. In recent years, major natural disasters have occurred frequently in the world, and major natural disasters in individual countries have not been ruled out, thus affecting bilateral trade with China. In addition, the direction of the "Occupy Wall Street" movement is still uncertain. In today's economic globalization, this movement should pay close attention to the impact of China's economy and even foreign trade. From the domestic perspective, maintaining a stable development of China's foreign trade has certain foundations and favorable conditions, as well as pressures such as rising costs. At present, China's economic development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities. The favorable conditions, inherent advantages and long-term positive trend in all aspects have not changed. The economy will continue to maintain a steady and rapid growth trend, which will surely form a strong support for China's foreign trade development. At the same time, China's traditional foreign trade comparative advantages still exist, new competitive advantages are gradually formed, market diversification strategy is steadily advanced, and enterprises continue to grow in fierce competition, especially after the tempering and baptism of the international financial crisis, to resist risks and expand the market. And the ability to innovate and develop is significantly enhanced. However, the long-term contradictions and short-term problems that restrict the development of foreign trade in China are superimposed, and the operating pressure of foreign trade enterprises has increased significantly. The rising production and operating costs of labor wages, raw material prices, RMB exchange rate, loan interest, and factory rents have weakened the price advantage of foreign trade enterprises to a certain extent, and have squeezed the profits of enterprises, which has made foreign trade enterprises, especially small and micro foreign trade enterprises, overwhelmed. The increase in costs and the decline in profits have led to a single failure to accept and unwilling to pick up, and will also increase the difficulty of structural adjustment. The export profit index of the key enterprises of the Ministry of Commerce dropped from 106.9 in April this year to 101.2 in September. The decline in profits has led to insufficient investment in technological transformation, research and development, and branding. Taking into account various factors, China's foreign trade will continue to grow in 2012, but the growth rate may fall back from 2011. With the increasing demand for domestic energy resources, the expansion of import policy support and the high price fluctuations of international commodity prices, import growth is expected to continue to be faster than exports, and the trade balance will be further improved. Facing the complicated and severe domestic and international environment, China's foreign trade will continue to maintain the stability and continuity of its policies, strive to overcome the adverse effects of external environmental changes, maintain stable growth of imports and exports, and focus on adjusting the structure of import and export products, market structure and regional structure. Accelerate the transformation of foreign trade development mode and enhance the sustainable development of foreign trade; unswervingly expand imports, create more favorable conditions for enterprises to expand imports, and continue to make positive contributions to the balanced development of global trade.
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