Since August 25, driven by the sharp rebound in crude oil prices, the main contract of plastic futures 1601 has risen sharply, and the price has risen from a minimum of 8040 yuan / ton to a maximum of 8755 yuan / ton, up 715 yuan / ton, The cumulative increase reached 8.89%. However, the market outlook is subject to imbalance between supply and demand, and the rebound in crude oil prices is highly restricted. This determines the lack of kinetic energy for this round of plastics, and it still needs to be treated with a rebound in the near future.
Crude oil continues to be weak after the rebound, cost support is difficult to sustain
Affected by the US dollar correction and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories, international crude oil futures have risen sharply. Recently, the market rumors that OPEC is concerned about the current crude oil price, OPEC may exchange views on low oil prices. This news indicates that OPEC cannot squeeze shale oil in a way that lowers oil prices, and the imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil will exist for a long time.
According to analysis, the role of OPEC at the beginning of its establishment is mainly to prevent large fluctuations in crude oil prices, but considering the current excess supply and demand of crude oil, the role of OPEC has been greatly weakened. Once OPEC unilaterally cuts crude oil, its market share is bound to be seized. If the market wants to rebalance the crude oil by reducing production, the only possibility is that the global crude oil production will be reduced. This is also the intention of OPEC recently revealed, but OPEC's idea is somewhat wishful thinking. In short, the imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil in the short term is difficult to solve. The possibility of OPEC's unilateral production cuts is very low. The future supply of crude oil will still be at 31 million barrels per day, and the price is difficult to change.
The fundamentals of plastic itself are weakening, and the price is hard to keep rising.
From the perspective of the supply and demand structure of plastic itself, the fundamentals of plastics remain weak. First, on August 26, some petrochemical inventories in the four regions of North China, East China, South China and Central China increased by nearly 20,000 tons compared with August 18, an increase of 37.81%. Secondly, most of the devices that were temporarily shut down due to temporary failures in the domestic market were restarted. The supply of goods has increased to a certain extent, and the overall supply of plastics is still loose. Under normal circumstances, the increase in cost can only play a role in stabilizing the price of plastics. The rise in plastic prices still needs the support of its own fundamentals. However, the current fundamentals of plastics do not live up to expectations, and plastic prices are unlikely to continue to rise.
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