Under the premise that the current CPI and PPI continue to be high and inflationary pressures are still on the premise, the Chinese economy will also shoulder the heavy responsibility of “guaranteeing growth†while “anti-inflation†in the second half of the year. On July 9, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the situation of CPI and PPI in June. The CPI “breaking six†hit a new high in three years, up 6.4% year-on-year. The price of pork in the “wind and water†has become a recognized “pushâ€; In June, the PPI also had a “high†performance of 7.1% year-on-year. Experts interviewed by the China Economic Times reporter reminded that the PPI's transmission effect on inflation cannot be ignored; with the changes in the international situation, the PPI may show a "stable steady decline" trend, and the "pre-inflation" based on the "anti-inflation" in the second half of the year is strongly demanded. Under the "difficult" situation, macroeconomic regulation and control are in urgent need of "fine tuning." PPI showed a "down signal" in the ring. Although the PPI remained "high" in June, and the PPI maintained a 7% year-on-year increase in the first half of the year, the industry analysts believe that since March, the PPI "steady decline" situation has appeared, March year-on-year It rose by 7.3%, up 6.8% year-on-year in April, and up 6.8% year-on-year in May. Although it achieved a 7.1% year-on-year increase in “contrarian†in June, it maintained a similar trend with the previous month. It is understood that in early June, the prices of coal, crude oil, small steel, iron ore and chemical products fell slightly, and the prices of refined oil, large and medium-sized steel, non-ferrous metals and cement rose. It is widely believed that domestic industrial production maintains rapid growth and international commodity prices fluctuate, objectively creating the momentum of PPI rebound. Wan Jun, deputy researcher of the International Industrial Economics Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed this report. The decline in the growth rate of the ring shows that the growth rate of PPI has slowed down, and the month-on-month comparison in June is more The beginning of the trend. Wan Jun believes that with the negative increase in the price of the upstream extractive industry, the overall production data will decrease from the previous month. With the influence of the conduction effect on the raw materials and processing industry in the third quarter and the second half of the year, the PPI will definitely fall back in the second half of the year, which also means The impact of “non-food factors†on CPI will decline. Statistics show that the ex-factory price of production materials in June fell by 0.1% from the previous month. Among them, the price of mining industry fell by 0.9%, becoming the main driving force for “upstream pullâ€. Wan Jun stressed that as the trend declines, the PPI of the whole year maintains a year-on-year increase of around 6%. The dilemma requires "high demand" regulation. "Current inflation has obvious cost-promoting characteristics, and high PPI transmission to CPI is a typical representation of data." Chen Yanbin, an associate professor at the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, stressed to this reporter that cost-driven inflation is also The PPI is high and the deep reason for the CPI to remain high. Chen Yanbin believes that the main reasons for the current cost-driven inflation include: the rise in grain prices of agricultural products, and the rise in labor wages, especially in the low-end labor force. In addition, the rise in location costs caused by high housing prices in China is also an important reason for the formation of costs to promote inflation. "Currently it is through the recovery of M2 (generalized money supply) to alleviate the upward pressure on costs, to hedge the important period of pressure to promote pressure." Chen Yanbin stressed. According to the reporter's understanding, the central bank announced the third interest rate hike in the evening on the 6th, and the deposit reserve ratio has been raised 6 times this year. The growth rate of M2 balance has dropped from 30% to 15.1% at the end of May. Domestic excess liquidity The situation is being effectively alleviated. Under the premise that the current CPI and PPI continue to be high and inflationary pressures are still on the premise, the Chinese economy has gone through the half-year line. The country continues to abide by the requirements of “anti-inflation†throughout the year, and shoulders the heavy responsibility of “guaranteeing growthâ€. "The higher demanding regulatory policies need to take into account 'inflation and growth'." Chen Yanbin stressed that the first thing to consider is the direction of US monetary policy, because it determines the international commodity prices and the impact on China's imported inflation, which is China's monetary policy. It must be considered positively; again, the growth situation in the second half of the year also puts more difficult regulatory requirements for the year-round regulation and control policy. "Anti-inflation and guarantee growth can be 'one stone and two birds' without the need for fine-tuning of macro-control." Wan Jun stressed that policy adjustments such as promoting the production of farmers and improving logistics conditions and improving production enthusiasm are to maintain the current monetary policy. "Inflation" is an effective way to achieve "guarantee growth."
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