The RMB exchange rate experienced the two-track system of listing price and adjustment price, the flexible peg to the US dollar system after the exchange rate was merged, the rigid peg to the US dollar system after the Asian financial crisis, and the appreciation phase after the reform of the exchange rate system in 2005. In order to accurately analyze the impact of exchange rate changes on China's automobile industry, according to the different stages of development of the exchange rate: combined with the actual situation of the automobile industry, we will divide the exchange rate changes after 2000 into three stages for discussion. After analyzing the relevant data, the conclusion is that the gradual small appreciation of the renminbi is not very significant for the automobile industry. The performance of the import and export of the automobile industry is more related to the international and domestic economic environment.
The advantage of RMB appreciation is that it can encourage more powerful car companies to seek overseas layout and operate global strategies as soon as possible. In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi will accelerate the pace of “global procurement†of auto companies, and the cost of imported parts will decrease, which will directly reduce the production cost of the whole vehicle and help to rapidly improve the quality and grade of products in the short term. Moreover, the appreciation of the local currency will promote foreign-related enterprises. Intensify the process of optimizing foreign trade, compress export costs as much as possible, and encourage enterprises to step up product upgrades and cost control to compensate for the loss of profit margin caused by appreciation; the sharp appreciation of RMB will also be significant for auto and parts importers. Good, with a total of 33.107 billion car products in 2009, an appreciation of 5% will save importers nearly $1.7 billion.
The appreciation of the renminbi also needs to pay attention to the following problems: Appreciation makes imported cars become “cheap†with exchange rate changes, weakening the competitive advantage of domestic car prices, making car powers more competitive with cars of the same class; Due to the decline in the appreciation of the local currency, the application of global procurement technology and components is not conducive to the long-term development of the vehicle industry; the consumption trend that has been cultivated for many years to replace imported vehicles with the development of self-owned brands has gradually subsided.
Reveal two development paths of CKD profit model. According to the above, the automotive and parts industries are not sensitive to incremental small appreciation. When the appreciation progressed to the 4%-6% range, the import and export of the automobile and parts industry experienced a large shock. However, in the long run, the auto and component industries are more related to the international and domestic macroeconomic situation and the price changes of important raw materials in the relevant industrial chain.
Therefore, a one-time appreciation of the local currency, and an appreciation of 5%, and then pegged to the US dollar, will have a positive impact on the automotive industry.
The advantage of RMB appreciation is that it can encourage more powerful car companies to seek overseas layout and operate global strategies as soon as possible. In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi will accelerate the pace of “global procurement†of auto companies, and the cost of imported parts will decrease, which will directly reduce the production cost of the whole vehicle and help to rapidly improve the quality and grade of products in the short term. Moreover, the appreciation of the local currency will promote foreign-related enterprises. Intensify the process of optimizing foreign trade, compress export costs as much as possible, and encourage enterprises to step up product upgrades and cost control to compensate for the loss of profit margin caused by appreciation; the sharp appreciation of RMB will also be significant for auto and parts importers. Good, with a total of 33.107 billion car products in 2009, an appreciation of 5% will save importers nearly $1.7 billion.
The appreciation of the renminbi also needs to pay attention to the following problems: Appreciation makes imported cars become “cheap†with exchange rate changes, weakening the competitive advantage of domestic car prices, making car powers more competitive with cars of the same class; Due to the decline in the appreciation of the local currency, the application of global procurement technology and components is not conducive to the long-term development of the vehicle industry; the consumption trend that has been cultivated for many years to replace imported vehicles with the development of self-owned brands has gradually subsided.
Reveal two development paths of CKD profit model. According to the above, the automotive and parts industries are not sensitive to incremental small appreciation. When the appreciation progressed to the 4%-6% range, the import and export of the automobile and parts industry experienced a large shock. However, in the long run, the auto and component industries are more related to the international and domestic macroeconomic situation and the price changes of important raw materials in the relevant industrial chain.
Therefore, a one-time appreciation of the local currency, and an appreciation of 5%, and then pegged to the US dollar, will have a positive impact on the automotive industry.
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