Recently, Longji shares announced its latest single crystal silicon wafer offer in November, a one-time drop of 0.4 yuan. Among them, the thickness of 190 microns was reduced from 6.15 yuan to 5.75 yuan, and the thickness of 180 was reduced from 6 yuan to 5.6 yuan. Instead of most of the day, the Central Ring also followed the thickness of the single crystal silicon wafer 180 to 5.65 yuan / min. Since the single crystal has continued to be in short supply in this year, there has been such a large drop in the current situation, which has caused a certain sensation in the industry. At the same time, compared with the latest price of polycrystalline silicon wire wafer of 5.05 yuan, the price reduction of this monocrystalline silicon wafer is again pulled. The price difference between single polysilicon sheets is near.
This price cut, as early as October this year, has already appeared. From the external environment, the first is the reduction of the European lowest price agreement (MIP), which led to the need to compete with the low-priced products in the high-priced products originally protected by the agreement, and then the EU announced that the MIP price will be adjusted quarterly. This means that in the future, high-efficiency single crystal products will continue to compete with low-cost and inefficient products, and the share and total volume of single-crystal and high-efficiency products will decline. Secondly, the United States, as one of the most important single crystal markets in the world, is also the most important source of demand for single crystal products in Europe. However, the demand for goods in the US 201 case ended after the 11th holiday and lost the US market. For crystal products, it is estimated that the normal demand is reduced by at least 30%.
The main markets for global demand for monocrystalline silicon wafers are China, the United States, Europe and Japan. During the '13th Five-Year Plan' period, the Chinese government officially launched the “Top Runner Program†in 2015, and the focus of the industry has shifted to 'Technology Leadership. The influence of the 'Leader' program, the industry began to enter the era of quality and efficiency. Although the single crystal PERC battery can better meet the requirements of the front runners, most of the single crystal PERC battery capacity has not been released. The market for monocrystalline silicon wafers is in short supply, and the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has remained high. Conversely, polysilicon wafers have changed the mortar line wafers to become more cost-effective diamond wire wafers this year, with the acceleration of technological transformation. At the end of the year, it is expected that the diamond wire cutting can replace the original 80% mortar wire wafer market. The cost and price of polycrystalline silicon wafers can be further lowered. Under the same trend, although the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has been adjusted twice in the first half of this year. Down, but still difficult to solve the dilemma of the single polysilicon price spread in this year, and affect the possibility of further expansion of the single crystal market share.
According to the monitoring of the market, the price difference of single polysilicon in the first half of 2016 was only 0.3 yuan, and the difference of single polycrystalline components was less than 5 cents. Before the price reduction of single crystal products at the end of October, the price difference of single polycrystalline silicon sheets has been expanded to 1.5 yuan. This change in price differential fully reflects the hot demand of single crystal products this year. Monocrystalline wafer companies have been able to take advantage of high profits, but at the same time they have driven the downstream to switch to polycrystalline products with rising cost performance, which is not conducive to single Crystal production and polycrystalline market competition, but with the support of national policies, market demand is shifting to efficient products.
With the adjustment of national policies, the terminal market structure has undergone significant changes since 2016, and large-scale ground power stations are gradually tilting toward distributed and household power stations. For distributed power plants with limited area, the advantages of high-efficiency products are obvious. Due to the high power and multi-generation characteristics, not only can the cost of the back-end installation and auxiliary materials be saved, the system cost can be reduced, and higher profits can be achieved. Therefore, the distributed market naturally favors high-efficiency products, which is extremely beneficial for higher-power single crystal products, and also requires efficient manufacturers to adopt more aggressive pricing strategies. Throughout the future, in the context of the outbreak of the distributed market, single crystal products based on their own strong competitiveness, and the rapid expansion of single crystal production capacity, it can be expected that the price difference of single polycrystalline products will continue to shrink in the future, the market share of single crystal It will also continue to climb all the way.
Downstream confidence in the single crystal market Perc technology route plus mass production
In addition to the cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers, PERC battery technology has further increased the competitive advantage of single crystal circuits. PERC (back passivation and partial back electrode) technology is the most cost-effective means of efficiency improvement in recent years. It has high compatibility with conventional battery production lines, low cost of production line transformation, and obvious efficiency improvement. It is the mainstream battery technology in the next 3-5 years. However, due to the different properties of the single polysilicon sheet material, the efficiency of the single crystal cell can be increased by 1-1.2% using the PERC technology. Polycrystalline can only increase by 0.6-0.8%, so most of the construction of PERC capacity uses a single crystal route. With the large-scale mass production of PERC products in 2018, the cost performance of single crystals will gradually increase, which will further expand the competitive advantage of the single crystal route.
Continuous release of production capacity, continuous price reduction is conducive to distributed development
This year, due to the further development of distribution and the active promotion of various brands, it provides a better development environment for distributed growth. So far, this year's distribution has a 100% growth rate compared to last year's full year. Relevant people predict that the Energy Bureau will introduce major policies, in addition to the highly anticipated reduction of distributed subsidies, and possibly the next year's PV on-grid tariff reduction, further expansion and regulation of poverty alleviation programs. From this point of view, the demand for single crystals will continue to rise in the future.
Longji, Central and other enterprises to expand the production capacity of single crystal silicon wafers in the second half of the year, in addition to single crystal origin of Longji and Central, Polycrystalline line of Jingke, GCL are expanding the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers, promoting the entire industry The capacity of single crystals has expanded rapidly. It is estimated that by the end of 2018, the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers in the industry will exceed 60 GW. It is estimated that the global demand will be calculated by 100-120 GW, and the single crystal will have a market share of nearly 50%. Although demand will increase, monocrystalline silicon wafer companies will continue to cut prices while releasing production capacity to meet the wave of installation of household distributed household power stations.
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