The media asked the exchange rate fluctuations: How much influence 2017 has on the people?

The regulatory authorities continued to strengthen foreign exchange management. The analysis said that the pressure on RMB depreciation in 2017 will be less than last year, and individuals do not have to rush to exchange foreign exchange.
The foreign exchange market in 2017 opened up a lot of "chill".
On the evening of December 31, 2016, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a message saying that the foreign exchange administration department improved the personal foreign exchange information reporting management, refined the content of the declaration, strengthened the bank's authenticity and compliance review responsibility, and conducted personal reporting. After the incident, check and increase the punishment.
For a time, the rumors of "foreign exchange control" were endless. To this end, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange re-issued on January 13 that the so-called "foreign exchange control" news was false, the foreign exchange administration actively supported trade and investment facilitation, and did not adopt new control measures for exchange and cross-border collection and payment. .
What kind of environment does China's foreign exchange market face? How will the new foreign exchange environment affect ordinary people? Will the future government set off a new round of "foreign exchange defense war"? In the face of the current foreign exchange environment, how should investors keep their "money bags"?
Analysts believe that the tightening of foreign exchange regulation and the prevention of capital outflows have become a consensus, and the RMB may face a slight depreciation pressure in 2017. For ordinary investors, the first thing to do is not to be busy with the exchange of foreign exchange, but also to find investment opportunities in the country.

1. Will there be a foreign exchange defense war this year?
Strict control of capital outflows has become an academic consensus
In fact, from the recent initiatives of the regulatory authorities to strictly control capital outflows, the “foreign exchange defense war” at the national level has begun.
According to the latest data released by the People's Bank of China on January 7, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of December last year was 301.517 billion US dollars, down by 41.081 billion US dollars from the end of November, a decrease of 1.3%. This is the sixth consecutive month of shrinking foreign exchange reserves since July last year, but it has not fallen below the three trillion mark. In addition, the foreign exchange reserves in 2016 decreased by 319.844 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 9.6%. However, the annual decline was 192.82 billion U.S. dollars less than the same period of the previous year.
Although the official has not commented on the impact of the decline in foreign exchange reserves, the recent “most strict” exchange-receiving measures taken by the central bank have explained the problem from the side.
On December 30, 2016, the central bank issued regulations requiring banks to report to the central bank for transactions over RMB 200,000 across the border from July 1, 2017; then to the bank on the evening of December 31, 2016. Documents will be issued. From January 1, 2017, the personal purchase remittance declaration needs to be refined to the purpose and time. It is forbidden for individuals to use foreign exchange for overseas purchase and securities investment.
In addition, since last year, the regulatory authorities have been vigorously cracking down on underground banks, while strengthening management of “speculative or hedging needs of domestic companies” and “domestic personal asset allocation needs”, including overseas financial investment, purchase of real estate, and insurance.
In terms of academics, strict control over capital outflows is a consensus. Li Daokui, director of the China and World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University, recently wrote: "The biggest risk at present should be the rapid outflow of funds caused by China's highest stock of money in the world. This outflow of funds will lead to a rapid decline in the exchange rate and a huge depreciation of the renminbi. The outflow of funds and the fall in the exchange rate will form a double-helix downward channel, which will lead to rapid blood loss in the domestic financial system and the lack of capital turnover." Kwai believes that both capital controls and exchange rate intervention should be both.
Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that foreign exchange reserves are the savings of our country and our national wealth. If it is used, it will be gone. With the gradual reduction of foreign exchange reserves, the ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market is getting lower and lower, and the rate of capital flight may be faster.

2. What impact will the regulatory tightening bring?
Strengthening supervision is conducive to stabilizing RMB foreign exchange expectations
Near the end of the year, the tightening of foreign exchange regulation on the policy side has caused heated discussion in the market. So what impact will this round of regulation have on financial markets?
Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the China and World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University, told the Beijing News that the central bank’s policy will have an effect on the foreign exchange speculation market. Yuan Gangming said, "Because speculation depends on the trend of the policy, although it does not have a real impact on the exchange of residents, but if the speculative RMB depreciation measures the government's measures to block foreign exchange investment, it will estimate the reduction of foreign exchange outflow. Will reduce the chance of RMB depreciation, so those who short the RMB depreciation will encounter losses, so the effect will be generated immediately."
Yang Delong, the chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, believes that tightening foreign exchange will help reduce capital outflows, thereby stabilizing the RMB exchange rate and changing the expectation of RMB depreciation.
"Since the New Year, the RMB exchange rate has begun to rebound strongly. One of the reasons is that the majority of the members of the Fed’s voting rights in the New Year are doves, so the interest rate hike is expected to slow down and facilitate the central bank to take measures to stabilize the exchange rate." Yang Delong said.
Wang Jianhui, general manager of the first securities research and development department, said that the relevant measures have a direct effect on stabilizing the RMB exchange rate expectation and the foreign exchange market, and indirectly stabilized the capital market and the financial market. However, the negative effects of foreign exchange tightening will also appear. Relevant measures may affect the attempt of foreign exchange reform and opening up. "The pace of our foreign investment may also be slowed down."
In addition, Wang Jianhui believes that the pace of internationalization of the RMB exchange rate and the expectation of free exchange will also be affected.
“Strengthening foreign exchange supervision is also management expectation.” Xiao Lei, chief researcher of Gold Wallet, said that if foreign exchange supervision is tightened, it is difficult to get out of funds and have certain support for the stock market. However, if monetary policy continues to tighten, the pressure on the stock market is actually relatively high. big.

3. How much influence does exchange rate fluctuation have on ordinary people?
Analysis said that exchange rate risk has little effect on the stock market and the property market
According to Sun Lijian, director of the Financial Research Center of Fudan University, the so-called "depreciation" of the RMB against the US dollar was originally derived from the strength of the US dollar. In fact, the RMB still maintains a stable level for currencies such as the Euro and the Japanese Yen.
"This depreciation will bring an expectation to the people, that is, everyone estimates that the dollar will rise and the renminbi will fall. Everyone will go abroad to look for value-added and appreciation of dollar assets." An expert who did not want to be named told reporters, " Everyone sells RMB, how does the RMB increase?"
How much does this "depreciation" brought about by expectations have an impact on the lives and economy of ordinary people? Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the China and World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University, told the Beijing News reporter that theoretically, if the renminbi is “depreciated”, it may cause capital to be drawn from the more speculative markets such as the stock market and the property market to find foreign returns. The phenomenon of higher projects.
"But from the actual situation, the exchange rate risk has little effect on the stock market and the property market this year." Yuan Gangming said.
Overall, the stock market in 2016 continued its volatility since the second half of 2015. Compared with the highest point of the previous year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen more than 2,000 points. Yuan Gangming said that the stock market at this time has already "fallen down".
Yuan Gangming believes that from the historical experience, the property market is a market that the government is strongly supporting. "The most favorable loan policies of all industries, a variety of measures to stimulate demand, a considerable part of the property market." Yuan Gangming said, "In this case, exchange rate fluctuations fundamentally affect real estate." Yuan Gangming said.

4. Will the RMB appreciate or continue to depreciate?
The analysis said that the renminbi will still face depreciation pressure, but less than 2016
At the G20 summit in February 2016, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, stated that “the RMB does not have a basis for continued depreciation.” Subsequently, in 2016, the central bank maintained this statement on the issue of the RMB exchange rate.
However, according to wind data, in 2016, the renminbi was weaker relative to the US dollar, with a depreciation of about 6.67% for the whole year and a depreciation of 5.13% for a basket of currencies.
In the current analysis of the reasons for the depreciation of the renminbi, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, Trump took office to stimulate the US economy, and the strengthening of the US dollar is considered to be the main reason for the weakening of the renminbi. Ma Jun, chief economist of the Central Bank Research Bureau, also said on December 22, 2016: "The recent depreciation of multi-country currencies such as the renminbi against the US dollar is mainly due to market expectations, and there are not many fundamental factors." He believes: "November 2016 Since the accelerated depreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the US dollar index has strengthened."
The response of the company is more sensitive. According to the PBOC data, the balance of foreign exchange reserves in December 2016 fell by 41 billion US dollars to 3.011 trillion US dollars. Li Daokui, director of the Center for China and World Economic Research at Tsinghua University, said that according to statistics, about 560 billion U.S. dollars were flowed out last year, and the main force was enterprises.
The academic attitude is relatively consistent. At present, the academic circles believe that the pressure of RMB depreciation still exists this year. However, the divergence is that the market has different views on the magnitude of the long-term depreciation of the renminbi.
Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: "The pressure of RMB depreciation will continue to exist, but the magnitude of the depreciation is not marginal. We have a bottom line that cannot allow the exchange rate to depreciate by more than 25%."
Li Daokui believes that "the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar will not exceed 5% next year." In addition, Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, believes that the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar is still facing depreciation pressure in 2017, but a basic The judgment is that the depreciation range is controllable and the depreciation margin will be smaller than 2016.

5. How do ordinary investors manage their finances?
Don't be too busy to exchange money with the wind, you can look for investment opportunities in the country.
In the case of low domestic interest rates and fluctuations in the capital market, high-quality targets are hard to find. Last year, domestic residents went to Hong Kong to buy insurance and overseas investment once became a hot topic. For ordinary investors, how can we adjust our financial management strategy after tightening foreign exchange regulation?
"This restriction is more targeted at individuals and families." Wang Jianhui said that for ordinary investors, first of all, do not blindly follow suit. The role of foreign exchange assets in asset appreciation and hedging is relatively limited, because the proportion of personal foreign exchange assets is not It's big, and it doesn't need a big percentage. "Unless the family has rigid demand, such as overseas study and consumption, this is normal exchange is not affected. From the perspective of asset preservation and appreciation, there is no need to expect the RMB to depreciate and eager to exchange foreign exchange."
Xiao Lei also said that under the tightening of foreign exchange regulation, changing the US dollar in the first half of the year is not a good choice. On the one hand, there is a callback demand after the US dollar rises, and on the other hand, after nearly three years of depreciation, the cost of using the RMB for the US dollar. It is already relatively high.
For investors who want to be able to obtain investment income through exchange rate changes, Wang Jianhui believes that the investors are more affected by overseas investment, such as buying a house, buying bonds, insurance, etc., especially the larger part. And if this part has the needs of overseas living and activities, the configuration is reasonable. Otherwise, because overseas asset allocation is also facing more uncertainty, such as buying a house in the United States, there is no guarantee that house prices will rise. "In this regard, do not use domestic concepts to apply for real estate speculation abroad."
Wang Jianhui said that if there is overseas financial investment demand, there are currently Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, QDII, etc., investors can make full use of it. At the same time, investors' expectations are to be long-term. "The renminbi is currently under phased depreciation pressure, but the internationalization of the renminbi is a trend, and it is still a long-term one."
Yang Delong suggested that investors can find more opportunities in the country than in outbound investment. "A shares may become the biggest surprise in 2017. You can allocate more blue chips or buy blue-chip funds, or you can buy FOF funds to realize lazy financial management. Professional fund managers are responsible for investing in quality funds."
Xiao Lei believes that with the rise in interest rates, currency-related (such as money funds) fixed-income assets can be allocated, and the income will gradually increase. The demand for foreign exchange investment by investors may shift to the demand for gold, and the price of gold denominated in RMB is a good direction.

Market: 2016 RMB “shocks down”
According to wind data, in 2016, the RMB was weaker relative to the US dollar, with a depreciation of about 6.67% for the whole year.
Looking back at the trend of RMB exchange rate in 2016, the internationalization of the RMB and the strengthening of the US dollar, the external environment has become the annual key exchange of RMB exchange rate changes.
After the Spring Festival in 2016, as the US dollar index began to weaken, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar showed a two-way floating dynamic trend, and the fluctuation range increased significantly. Since March 2016, the US dollar index has continued to weaken, which has won a rare window for the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate.
Since May 2016, the dollar has rebounded sharply due to the risk aversion and the renewed warming of the Fed’s summer interest rate hike. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar began to fluctuate downward. On June 24, after the results of the Brexit referendum were announced, the US dollar index once rose to 96.7, and the day's gains reached 3.7%. As a result, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar fell.
However, in July 2016, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar rebounded slightly. Since July 6, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has fluctuated within a range of 6.68-6.70, and began to rebound on July 19. The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar, the onshore spot exchange rate and the offshore spot exchange rate were respectively in August. On the 9th, it closed at 6.6594, 6.6619 and 6.6626.
The market generally believes that this is the “competition” operation of the central bank at the RMB 6.7 mark. The renminbi is “double appreciation” against the US dollar and against the basket currency. The central bank first turned to the operation of “minor, more liters” of the yuan against the US dollar, allowing the CFETS index to rise slightly.
From August 2016 to the present, the US dollar in the second quarter GDP growth rate is far less than expected and the non-agricultural data is much better than expected, the renminbi once again returned to the shock downward trend, "strategic depreciation" restarted as scheduled. So within one month, the renminbi continuously broke through the 6.8 and 6.9 points.

Policy: "wide-in and strict-out" into 2016 foreign exchange supervision focus
In the moment when the exchange rate war is anxious, the other direction, "wide and strict" has become the key word for foreign exchange regulation in 2016.

Personal exchange requirements are more stringent
On January 1, 2016, the official website of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that it will improve the management of the “list of attention” for personal foreign exchange business, and that individuals who use the quota of others to handle foreign exchange settlement and sales will be directly included in the “list of attention” – The so-called "blacklist", once the offenders enter the "blacklist", will be deprived of a total of $100,000 in foreign exchange for two years. The remittance of three different domestic accounts to the same overseas account will be recognized as ant moving.
In addition, one year later, the SAFE revised the personal foreign exchange information reporting management method, and the operation supervision of the residents' foreign exchange purchase policy became stricter. On the basis of the original, the “Application for Foreign Exchange Purchase” filled out by residents when purchasing foreign exchange is clear, “When domestic individuals purchase foreign exchange, they are not allowed to use for overseas purchase, securities investment, purchase of life insurance and investment return dividend insurance. Open capital projects.

Hong Kong "transfer" is restricted
It is worth noting that in the second half of the year, China UnionPay stopped mainland customers to pay the premiums in UnionPay cards in Hong Kong. After paying the UnionPay cards to pay premiums, they could not use foreign exchange quotas, thus avoiding personal foreign exchange quotas. Therefore, people raised the use of UnionPay cards to buy RMB. The dollar-denominated insurance formed a dollar asset. In the past five years, the trend of insured in Hong Kong has risen linearly. The driving factor of this phenomenon is the depreciation of the renminbi, and the dollar is strengthening.
From 0:00 am on October 29, the company has completely suspended the use of UnionPay as a payment channel to pay Hong Kong insurance premiums, covering all insurance companies and products in Hong Kong. At that time, there was news of flying to Hong Kong to buy insurance overnight. The way the domestic funds fled from Hong Kong was blocked.

Corporate overseas investment is subject to strict review
On the enterprise side, the reality of capital flight by the name of investment has received high-level attention. On December 6, the heads of the four departments of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Foreign Exchange Bureau said that they would pay close attention to the recent irrationalities in real estate, hotels, cinemas, entertainment, sports clubs and other fields. The tendency to invest abroad.
Earlier on November 28th, the four ministries and commissions made a statement that they will continue to implement filing management for all overseas investment transactions and will conduct strict audits of cross-border investment transactions.
According to the "Economic Observer", foreign investment with a future investment of more than 10 billion US dollars, large-scale M&A investment of non-main projects with a total investment of more than 1 billion US dollars, and overseas real estate transactions of more than 1 billion US dollars of state-owned enterprises Foreign investment will likely be subject to strict scrutiny.
At the same time as strict personal and corporate foreign exchange settlement business review, the “Regulations on Foreign Exchange Administration of Domestic Securities Investment by Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors” promulgated and implemented by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange in February 2016 relaxed the investment quota for foreign capital entering the domestic capital market. The policy orientation of “into the strict and strict” and encouraging foreign capital inflows is revealed.
This edition is written/New Beijing News reporter Yan Di Chen Peng Wang Quanhao Li Lei Intern Wang Jiaying

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