Since March, the volume of housing transactions in many cities across the country has rebounded significantly. At the beginning of the year, there was a loose mortgage interest rate. As the housing transaction volume increased, there was also a downward trend.
Judging from the recent interest rate adjustment, in the four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, except for Shanghai, where interest rates have not changed significantly, the other three cities have varying degrees of loosening. The scope of the interest rate cut is still expanding.
In the interview, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that the mortgage business became a major concern of banks at the beginning of the year. However, the actual recovery of mortgages was somewhat late. After the property market recovered in March, the mortgage business began to heat up.
Many insiders believe that this may be the beginning of the 2019 mortgage business.
The mortgage business turning point has arrived
Looking back at the trend of mortgage business in recent years, the growth rate reached a low point in 2018, which is consistent with the regulation policy of the property market in 2018. From the annual report data disclosed by listed banks in 2018, the four major banks of the main business of mortgage loans (the Bank of China did not disclose the data related to mortgages, the four major banks in this article refer to ICBC, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank and Bank of Communications) increased their mortgages in 2018. The rate has dropped compared to 2016 and 2017.
According to historical annual report data, the growth rate of personal housing loans of the five major banks in 2016 was around 30%. With the introduction of the property market's regulation and control policies, the growth rate of ICBC and ABC's mortgages fell to 21.5% and 22.5% respectively. The year-on-year growth rates of construction banks, Bank of China and Bank of Communications in 2017 were 17.5%, 17.5% and 16.49% respectively.
According to the 2018 annual report, the growth rate of mortgage loans has further declined. Last year, the growth rate of personal housing loans of ICBC and ABC was 16.5% and 16.8%, respectively, while the growth rates of CCB and Bank of Communications were 12.83% and 12.29% respectively.
In the 21st century economic report, the reporter pointed out in the research report at the beginning of the year that in the year of 2019, the retail credit business indicators of many banks put the mortgage (mortgage) in a key position, and prepared more adequate for the next housing market to pick up. Amount. However, the warming of the mortgage business was not obvious in the first two months. Until March, this turning point came.
A personal lending business person in a stock company in South China told 21st Century Business Reporter that the first quarter is usually a period of relatively loose credit line for commercial banks, and it is also the peak of housing mortgage loans, but the mortgage business in the first two months can only be called smooth. It is difficult to return to warm; until March, the increase in the transaction volume of the property market led to a significant return to the mortgage business.
“Especially, the number of people who consulted the mortgage business has increased significantly in the near term. On the one hand, it is related to the downward adjustment of the mortgage interest rate, on the other hand, the market’s expectation on the property market has stabilized. Many buyers who have just waited and watched are now choosing to take the shot. From the personal loan business The judgment of the peers is similar. This should be an inflection point of the bank's mortgage business this year.†The above-mentioned lenders further pointed out that in the second quarter, this warming trend will continue.
Image source: Photographed network
Mortgage interest rate down or expansion
Judging from the recent changes in mortgage policy and interest rates in the north, the market believes that the mortgage interest rate has released a down signal, but this time the downgrade is more stable than the previous large-scale interest rate loosening.
In the first-tier cities, Beiguangshen has been loosened to varying degrees. Among them, Shenzhen first appeared a more common interest rate cut. At the beginning of March, including the four major banks, many banks in Shenzhen lowered the interest rate of the first suite from 10% to 5%, and the interest rate of the second suite was lowered to 10%.
Guangzhou's overall maintenance of the first suite benchmark rose 10%, the second suite benchmark rose 15% level; Beijing maintained the first suite up 10%, the second suite benchmark rose 20% level. However, interest rates of some stock exchanges and city commercial banks have been loosened, and loan conditions and loan speeds have also been relaxed to varying degrees.
In the interview, the reporters of the 21st Century Business Herald found that in Beijing, for example, some of the stock exchanges that did not have quotas and stopped lending in the same period last year have now reopened the mortgage business, and have implemented more simple appropriation conditions.
However, a real estate agent in Beijing told reporters that the mortgage interest rate has remained basically unchanged overall, but the transaction volume has increased in March, and the growth rate has been stable. As the purchase of housing increases, the mortgage has also increased. However, the application conditions of the big bank have not changed significantly at present, and the loan period is about one month. As for some stock companies and city commercial banks with less business, it is possible to attract customers through simpler processes and lending cycles, but it is not the mainstream of the market.
The intermediary pointed out that the overall real estate regulation has not changed, and the regulation will not let the property market soar. The recovery of this round was mainly due to the fact that the buyers who had just waited for the house had stabilized their expectations after the two sessions. Choosing to buy a house at this time was not caused by other factors. Therefore, the recovery of the property market and mortgages in the future will not be too intense, and the overall recovery will be stable and controllable.
Some market participants believe that the downward adjustment of mortgage interest rates is one of the reasons for the property market to return to temperature, and the downward adjustment of interest rates will have more room for the future in the country. In addition to first-tier cities, interest rates on mortgages in several second- and third-tier cities have recently eased.
Judging from the situation in Guangdong Province, the interest rates of many banks in Zhuhai and Foshan have been lowered by 5 percentage points. In Xiamen, some banks have adjusted the bank loan interest rate of the first suite to the benchmark interest rate, and once they have settled the loan, they can buy the house again and still operate according to the first home loan interest rate.
In addition, the interest rates of the first suites in Tianjin, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other cities have been significantly reduced. Many market participants believe that the close of the first-home loan to the benchmark interest rate is the general trend, and there is a possibility that the future mortgage interest rate will go down.
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