After three years of rapid growth, what is the trend of China's machine tool industry?
After three years of rapid growth, what is the trend of China's machine tool industry? Some insiders predict that in 2006, China's machine tool industry will fall rationally and enter a period of steady growth; others have judged that China's machine tool industry will enter a "low valley" in 2006.
However, no matter which kind of forecast, once thrown, it may be the industry's "incitement". For China's local enterprises, since 2000, China's machine tool market has been prosperous, many companies have begun to forcefully and orderly to arrange troops, and to take advantage of the fiery market to "do a good job" is their heart. The strongest desires and dreams in the machine tool industry, the Chinese machine tool market has become an important choice in the strategic deployment of its multinational companies, so the Chinese machine tool market is also the most important. Sensitive nerves.
For a time, the "2006 China's machine tool industry economic trends" has become a hot topic of concern for Chinese and foreign machine tool industry.
On January 12, 2006, Wu Bolin, the Director General of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, gave a rational interpretation of the “2006 China Machine Tool Industry Economic Trendsâ€, which is of general concern to the machine tool industry. In terms of the overall development trend of the industry, Wu Bolin believes: "In 2006, China's machine tool industry will enter a stable development lane, and its output value and output should be able to maintain a growth of about 15% compared with 2005. Industry-wide industry The total output value and product sales revenue will reach 150 billion yuan."
Perhaps Wu Bolin has been prepared for this problem, so after giving the judgment of the situation, he seems to be like a few treasures.
The macro environment is good
Wu Bolin emphasized that China's macroeconomic operating environment in 2006 is the basis for China's machine tool industry to maintain growth of around 5%. â€
According to relevant departments, China will adhere to the scientific development concept to guide the overall situation of economic and social development in 2006, and maintain the stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies. The Chinese economy will continue to maintain steady and rapid development. Many experts predict that China's economic growth rate will remain at around 9% in 2006, and investment in fixed assets will maintain a reasonable scale and growth rate.
From the perspective of the close correlation between the growth rate of the total output value of the machine tool industry and the sales revenue of the machine tool industry over the years, the development speed is generally slightly higher than the growth rate of fixed asset investment.
This series of data shows that in 2006 China's machine tool industry did not lack the development of the macroeconomic environment. What can be added to the development of China's machine tool industry is the “Several Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Revitalization of Equipment Manufacturing Industry†adopted by the State Council on September 28, 2005, and proposed the main objectives and main activities for revitalizing China's equipment manufacturing industry. Mission, and clarify the direction of key breakthroughs. Wu Bolin introduced: "The "Opinions" clarified the development of a number of major equipment supported by the state, such as large-scale power generation, power transmission and transformation equipment, large-scale petrochemical and coal chemical plants, mining and mining equipment, complete sets of rolling equipment, and large-scale marine vessels. High-speed trains, large-face rock tunneling machines, such as construction machinery, civil aviation aircraft and engines, and one of them is 'developing large-scale, precision, high-speed CNC equipment and numerical control systems and functional components, changing large-scale, high-precision CNC machine tools. Most rely on the status quo of imports to meet the needs of the development of these industries '."
“This indicates to some extent a direction for the development of China's machine tool industry in the future.†Wu Bolin said with some excitement, “It is the breakthrough path for the development of China's machine tool industry to keep up with the development needs of major related industries. The fear of shrinking the machine tool industry is essentially based on the overall demand of the market. From the sales situation in the third and fourth quarters of 2005, low-end ordinary machine tools, especially small and medium-sized small lathes and small milling machines are sold. Orders have indeed decreased significantly, and some companies have also experienced pressures. From the current situation analysis, the small and medium-sized machine tool market will continue to decline in the next few years. However, this is not terrible. After analysis and research, it shows that the demand for CNC machine tools in all important industries of the national economy, especially the medium and high-end CNC machine tools, is growing steadily."
"It should be said that 2006 will become an inflection point for the development of China's machine tool industry. The development of the previous years mainly relied on the rapid growth of the national economy, which led to the rapid growth of the machine tool industry. The macroeconomic regulation and control policy initiated in 2003. After nearly three years of implementation, the Chinese economy has gradually returned to rationality. 2006 is the first year of China's 'Eleventh Five-Year Plan' implementation. The economic development of the 'Eleventh Five-Year Plan' focuses on achieving economic growth. The transformation, the traditional manufacturing industry is shifting to the direction of advanced manufacturing. The development of China's machine tool industry is also the same. Adjusting the product structure and finding a new economic growth mode is the fundamental way out."
Product structure adjustment is in place
Speaking of the product structure of China's machine tool industry, it shows a very serious expression on Wu Berlin's face.
The history of China's real CNC machine tools is so short. According to industry insiders: "Although China put forward the requirements for the development of domestic CNC machine tools in the '6th Five-Year' period, but due to the foundation of a poor and white and the Western countries' technical blockade, until 1999, the national CNC machine tool production was less than 10,000 units. .
The real turning point is after 2000. As of 2004, according to the statistics of authoritative departments, at that time, China's CNC machine tools reached 51,861 units. Recently, news from different sources shows that in 2005, CNC machine tools could break through 60,000 units.
Wu Bolin said: "From a vertical perspective, the technical level of Chinese machine tools has indeed improved. In addition to the increase in production, the number of CNC machine tools in the industry has more than 1,500 varieties, which is very worthy of our satisfaction. But from a horizontal perspective Generally speaking, the situation is not optimistic. At present, economical CNC machine tools are basically self-sufficient; most of the high-end CNC machine tools rely on imports; most of the domestic market for popular CNC machine tools is also occupied by imported products."
Obviously, in the face of the status quo of China's machine tool industry, Wu Berlin is a little anxious. He even said very eagerly on some occasions: "If I do what I am doing now, what will be done in the next five years will be finished!"
In Wu Bolin's theory, the decline in the total demand for the Chinese market in the future does not mean that the output value and market share of the Chinese machine tool industry will decline.
"The market shrinks can't fall to the top of Chinese companies!" When I spoke these words, I felt so angry and confusing from Wu Berlin's words.
When it comes to the 15% growth of China's machine tool industry in 2006, he has repeatedly stressed that the premise is to "build on the basis of product structure adjustment." The reason for giving him this kind of enthusiasm lies in the initial results of the technical transformation project in previous years. It is understood that Shenyang Machine Tool and Dalian Machine Tool have invested several billion yuan, and many other enterprises have invested hundreds of millions of yuan for technological transformation and technology development.
Wu Bolin predicted: "These technological transformations and technology development should play a role in the next five-year plan, so that these enterprises have the capacity to produce high-start products on a large scale. These technological transformations and technological developments, together with self-innovation in previous years. Accumulated, it is expected that there will be results this year; this year, we will invest again, and we will have results next year; we will invest again next year, and we will have results in the next year. Like snowballs, we will continue to block imported products with our own strength. If the market is distributed to Chinese companies, what kind of situation will it be?
However, the mall is the battlefield, and there is no assumption at the time of the actual war. For the development of China's machine tool industry, Wu Bolin's advice is: to improve the level of independent innovation in a down-to-earth manner!
Independent innovation and improvement of technology is the way
"To improve the technical level of the company in a down-to-earth manner" is a new topic for China's machine tool industry.
Because, as early as the 1960s, when China began to engage in CNC machine tools, it tried to cooperate with foreign countries through various forms, and introduced some key core technologies that it lacked (such as multi-axis linkage technology and thermal deformation compensation technology) to improve The core competitiveness of the self.
He turned his fingers and turned around for decades. Let’s take a look at today’s situation. “Until now, multi-axis linkage technology and thermal deformation compensation technology, Japan, the United States, and Germany are still blocking China.†Wu Bolin, who has participated in many technology introduction activities, is very emotional. .
Wu Berlin pointed out very seriously: "The real core technology is not introduced; the ability to innovate is not introduced. From the perspective of the development of the world machine tool market, they are increasingly moving towards high-end technology products. Almost all of the products that can be produced in the middle and low-end, China, in fact, the real high-end products with core technology have not been transferred. Even in the past few years, a large number of companies have successfully implemented overseas mergers and acquisitions, on the surface we bought The intellectual property of technology, but in fact, the transfer of truly core technology from abroad to China is quite difficult!"
Then, where will the innovation of China's machine tool enterprise technology go?
Wu Bolin responded: "First, we can't close the door to innovate, we can't close the door to develop, we must continue to reform and open up the policy, and we must introduce and absorb it extensively. Second, we cannot rely on innovation to innovate. The ability is not to be introduced, it is necessary to expand the combination of technology and trade, accelerate independent innovation; establish cooperation with key enterprises and institutions to strengthen grassroots innovation. Independent innovation, introduction, digestion and absorption, and transformation and innovation can not be less."
Policy support is protection
In 2006, it may soon become a watershed in the epoch-making development of China's machine tool industry.
There are three reasons for this: 1. In the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology on the 2020 national medium- and long-term development plan, the development of CNC machine tool industry is listed as an important development industry; 2. On September 28, 2005, the State Council passed the article on “accelerating the revitalization of equipmentâ€. In the "Opinions on Manufacturing Industry", the development of CNC machine tools is still listed as the key point; 3. As early as 2004, Premier Wen Jiabao made the following instructions on the status of CNC machine tool industry: the National Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments are required to formulate a CNC machine tool development plan as soon as possible. According to Wen Jiabao's instructions, Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, clearly stated that the Industrial Development and Reform Commission of the National Development and Reform Commission and the China Machine Tool Industry Association have preliminarily formulated the “Special Plan for the Development of CNC Machine Toolsâ€.
According to Wu Bolin, "The current special plan for the development of CNC machine tools (ie the 11th Five-Year Plan) has been formed and is pending approval by the relevant departments."
A series of actions is not just a coincidence. In recent reports from relevant media, there has been such a statement: "The tenth five-year plan is a period of rapid development of CNC machine tools in China; the eleventh five-year plan will be a strategic opportunity for the development of CNC machine tools."
At the dawn of history, Chinese machine tool companies are facing a broad stage. It is understood that according to the "Special Plan for the Development of CNC Machine Tools", by 2010, domestic CNC machine tools accounted for more than 50% of the domestic market demand; functional components are complete, self-sufficiency rate of 60%; CNC systems with independent intellectual property rights account for CNC machine tools 75% of the total output; in the sales of domestic CNC machine tools, economical CNC machine tools account for about 50%, to meet the domestic market demand; popular CNC machine tools accounted for about 45%, to achieve large-scale production; advanced CNC machine tools accounted for about 5% The variety has been greatly increased; the economical CNC machine tools have reached the capacity of bulk export, the popular CNC machine tools have gradually expanded their exports, and the export of advanced CNC machine tools has made breakthroughs; the industrialization of key functional components has been realized, laying the foundation for the upgrading of CNC machine tools; developing high-precision digital measurement Instruments and CNC tools are used for medium and high-grade CNC machine tools; the implementation of advanced CNC machine tool demonstration projects to meet the needs of national key projects.
Moreover, it is more advantageous that “grabbing the opportunity†is not only the heart of the enterprise, but also the government departments have given basic guarantees from relevant policies. It is understood that the main policies are as follows: The central government funds mainly support the industrialization of key functional components for the popularization of above-mentioned CNC machine tools; support the improvement of technological innovation capabilities; encourage joint introduction of technology, joint development of products; fiscal taxation to give preferential policies; support for key enterprises Speed ​​up the transfer of the system.
Thus, the redevelopment of China's machine tool industry is worth looking forward to.
After three years of rapid growth, what is the trend of China's machine tool industry? Some insiders predict that in 2006, China's machine tool industry will fall rationally and enter a period of steady growth; others have judged that China's machine tool industry will enter a "low valley" in 2006.
However, no matter which kind of forecast, once thrown, it may be the industry's "incitement". For China's local enterprises, since 2000, China's machine tool market has been prosperous, many companies have begun to forcefully and orderly to arrange troops, and to take advantage of the fiery market to "do a good job" is their heart. The strongest desires and dreams in the machine tool industry, the Chinese machine tool market has become an important choice in the strategic deployment of its multinational companies, so the Chinese machine tool market is also the most important. Sensitive nerves.
For a time, the "2006 China's machine tool industry economic trends" has become a hot topic of concern for Chinese and foreign machine tool industry.
On January 12, 2006, Wu Bolin, the Director General of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, gave a rational interpretation of the “2006 China Machine Tool Industry Economic Trendsâ€, which is of general concern to the machine tool industry. In terms of the overall development trend of the industry, Wu Bolin believes: "In 2006, China's machine tool industry will enter a stable development lane, and its output value and output should be able to maintain a growth of about 15% compared with 2005. Industry-wide industry The total output value and product sales revenue will reach 150 billion yuan."
Perhaps Wu Bolin has been prepared for this problem, so after giving the judgment of the situation, he seems to be like a few treasures.
The macro environment is good
Wu Bolin emphasized that China's macroeconomic operating environment in 2006 is the basis for China's machine tool industry to maintain growth of around 5%. â€
According to relevant departments, China will adhere to the scientific development concept to guide the overall situation of economic and social development in 2006, and maintain the stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies. The Chinese economy will continue to maintain steady and rapid development. Many experts predict that China's economic growth rate will remain at around 9% in 2006, and investment in fixed assets will maintain a reasonable scale and growth rate.
From the perspective of the close correlation between the growth rate of the total output value of the machine tool industry and the sales revenue of the machine tool industry over the years, the development speed is generally slightly higher than the growth rate of fixed asset investment.
This series of data shows that in 2006 China's machine tool industry did not lack the development of the macroeconomic environment. What can be added to the development of China's machine tool industry is the “Several Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Revitalization of Equipment Manufacturing Industry†adopted by the State Council on September 28, 2005, and proposed the main objectives and main activities for revitalizing China's equipment manufacturing industry. Mission, and clarify the direction of key breakthroughs. Wu Bolin introduced: "The "Opinions" clarified the development of a number of major equipment supported by the state, such as large-scale power generation, power transmission and transformation equipment, large-scale petrochemical and coal chemical plants, mining and mining equipment, complete sets of rolling equipment, and large-scale marine vessels. High-speed trains, large-face rock tunneling machines, such as construction machinery, civil aviation aircraft and engines, and one of them is 'developing large-scale, precision, high-speed CNC equipment and numerical control systems and functional components, changing large-scale, high-precision CNC machine tools. Most rely on the status quo of imports to meet the needs of the development of these industries '."
“This indicates to some extent a direction for the development of China's machine tool industry in the future.†Wu Bolin said with some excitement, “It is the breakthrough path for the development of China's machine tool industry to keep up with the development needs of major related industries. The fear of shrinking the machine tool industry is essentially based on the overall demand of the market. From the sales situation in the third and fourth quarters of 2005, low-end ordinary machine tools, especially small and medium-sized small lathes and small milling machines are sold. Orders have indeed decreased significantly, and some companies have also experienced pressures. From the current situation analysis, the small and medium-sized machine tool market will continue to decline in the next few years. However, this is not terrible. After analysis and research, it shows that the demand for CNC machine tools in all important industries of the national economy, especially the medium and high-end CNC machine tools, is growing steadily."
"It should be said that 2006 will become an inflection point for the development of China's machine tool industry. The development of the previous years mainly relied on the rapid growth of the national economy, which led to the rapid growth of the machine tool industry. The macroeconomic regulation and control policy initiated in 2003. After nearly three years of implementation, the Chinese economy has gradually returned to rationality. 2006 is the first year of China's 'Eleventh Five-Year Plan' implementation. The economic development of the 'Eleventh Five-Year Plan' focuses on achieving economic growth. The transformation, the traditional manufacturing industry is shifting to the direction of advanced manufacturing. The development of China's machine tool industry is also the same. Adjusting the product structure and finding a new economic growth mode is the fundamental way out."
Product structure adjustment is in place
Speaking of the product structure of China's machine tool industry, it shows a very serious expression on Wu Berlin's face.
The history of China's real CNC machine tools is so short. According to industry insiders: "Although China put forward the requirements for the development of domestic CNC machine tools in the '6th Five-Year' period, but due to the foundation of a poor and white and the Western countries' technical blockade, until 1999, the national CNC machine tool production was less than 10,000 units. .
The real turning point is after 2000. As of 2004, according to the statistics of authoritative departments, at that time, China's CNC machine tools reached 51,861 units. Recently, news from different sources shows that in 2005, CNC machine tools could break through 60,000 units.
Wu Bolin said: "From a vertical perspective, the technical level of Chinese machine tools has indeed improved. In addition to the increase in production, the number of CNC machine tools in the industry has more than 1,500 varieties, which is very worthy of our satisfaction. But from a horizontal perspective Generally speaking, the situation is not optimistic. At present, economical CNC machine tools are basically self-sufficient; most of the high-end CNC machine tools rely on imports; most of the domestic market for popular CNC machine tools is also occupied by imported products."
Obviously, in the face of the status quo of China's machine tool industry, Wu Berlin is a little anxious. He even said very eagerly on some occasions: "If I do what I am doing now, what will be done in the next five years will be finished!"
In Wu Bolin's theory, the decline in the total demand for the Chinese market in the future does not mean that the output value and market share of the Chinese machine tool industry will decline.
"The market shrinks can't fall to the top of Chinese companies!" When I spoke these words, I felt so angry and confusing from Wu Berlin's words.
When it comes to the 15% growth of China's machine tool industry in 2006, he has repeatedly stressed that the premise is to "build on the basis of product structure adjustment." The reason for giving him this kind of enthusiasm lies in the initial results of the technical transformation project in previous years. It is understood that Shenyang Machine Tool and Dalian Machine Tool have invested several billion yuan, and many other enterprises have invested hundreds of millions of yuan for technological transformation and technology development.
Wu Bolin predicted: "These technological transformations and technology development should play a role in the next five-year plan, so that these enterprises have the capacity to produce high-start products on a large scale. These technological transformations and technological developments, together with self-innovation in previous years. Accumulated, it is expected that there will be results this year; this year, we will invest again, and we will have results next year; we will invest again next year, and we will have results in the next year. Like snowballs, we will continue to block imported products with our own strength. If the market is distributed to Chinese companies, what kind of situation will it be?
However, the mall is the battlefield, and there is no assumption at the time of the actual war. For the development of China's machine tool industry, Wu Bolin's advice is: to improve the level of independent innovation in a down-to-earth manner!
Independent innovation and improvement of technology is the way
"To improve the technical level of the company in a down-to-earth manner" is a new topic for China's machine tool industry.
Because, as early as the 1960s, when China began to engage in CNC machine tools, it tried to cooperate with foreign countries through various forms, and introduced some key core technologies that it lacked (such as multi-axis linkage technology and thermal deformation compensation technology) to improve The core competitiveness of the self.
He turned his fingers and turned around for decades. Let’s take a look at today’s situation. “Until now, multi-axis linkage technology and thermal deformation compensation technology, Japan, the United States, and Germany are still blocking China.†Wu Bolin, who has participated in many technology introduction activities, is very emotional. .
Wu Berlin pointed out very seriously: "The real core technology is not introduced; the ability to innovate is not introduced. From the perspective of the development of the world machine tool market, they are increasingly moving towards high-end technology products. Almost all of the products that can be produced in the middle and low-end, China, in fact, the real high-end products with core technology have not been transferred. Even in the past few years, a large number of companies have successfully implemented overseas mergers and acquisitions, on the surface we bought The intellectual property of technology, but in fact, the transfer of truly core technology from abroad to China is quite difficult!"
Then, where will the innovation of China's machine tool enterprise technology go?
Wu Bolin responded: "First, we can't close the door to innovate, we can't close the door to develop, we must continue to reform and open up the policy, and we must introduce and absorb it extensively. Second, we cannot rely on innovation to innovate. The ability is not to be introduced, it is necessary to expand the combination of technology and trade, accelerate independent innovation; establish cooperation with key enterprises and institutions to strengthen grassroots innovation. Independent innovation, introduction, digestion and absorption, and transformation and innovation can not be less."
Policy support is protection
In 2006, it may soon become a watershed in the epoch-making development of China's machine tool industry.
There are three reasons for this: 1. In the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology on the 2020 national medium- and long-term development plan, the development of CNC machine tool industry is listed as an important development industry; 2. On September 28, 2005, the State Council passed the article on “accelerating the revitalization of equipmentâ€. In the "Opinions on Manufacturing Industry", the development of CNC machine tools is still listed as the key point; 3. As early as 2004, Premier Wen Jiabao made the following instructions on the status of CNC machine tool industry: the National Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments are required to formulate a CNC machine tool development plan as soon as possible. According to Wen Jiabao's instructions, Zhang Guobao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, clearly stated that the Industrial Development and Reform Commission of the National Development and Reform Commission and the China Machine Tool Industry Association have preliminarily formulated the “Special Plan for the Development of CNC Machine Toolsâ€.
According to Wu Bolin, "The current special plan for the development of CNC machine tools (ie the 11th Five-Year Plan) has been formed and is pending approval by the relevant departments."
A series of actions is not just a coincidence. In recent reports from relevant media, there has been such a statement: "The tenth five-year plan is a period of rapid development of CNC machine tools in China; the eleventh five-year plan will be a strategic opportunity for the development of CNC machine tools."
At the dawn of history, Chinese machine tool companies are facing a broad stage. It is understood that according to the "Special Plan for the Development of CNC Machine Tools", by 2010, domestic CNC machine tools accounted for more than 50% of the domestic market demand; functional components are complete, self-sufficiency rate of 60%; CNC systems with independent intellectual property rights account for CNC machine tools 75% of the total output; in the sales of domestic CNC machine tools, economical CNC machine tools account for about 50%, to meet the domestic market demand; popular CNC machine tools accounted for about 45%, to achieve large-scale production; advanced CNC machine tools accounted for about 5% The variety has been greatly increased; the economical CNC machine tools have reached the capacity of bulk export, the popular CNC machine tools have gradually expanded their exports, and the export of advanced CNC machine tools has made breakthroughs; the industrialization of key functional components has been realized, laying the foundation for the upgrading of CNC machine tools; developing high-precision digital measurement Instruments and CNC tools are used for medium and high-grade CNC machine tools; the implementation of advanced CNC machine tool demonstration projects to meet the needs of national key projects.
Moreover, it is more advantageous that “grabbing the opportunity†is not only the heart of the enterprise, but also the government departments have given basic guarantees from relevant policies. It is understood that the main policies are as follows: The central government funds mainly support the industrialization of key functional components for the popularization of above-mentioned CNC machine tools; support the improvement of technological innovation capabilities; encourage joint introduction of technology, joint development of products; fiscal taxation to give preferential policies; support for key enterprises Speed ​​up the transfer of the system.
Thus, the redevelopment of China's machine tool industry is worth looking forward to.
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