Profit model similarity
Yingli plans to install 13 to 15 GW of ground power in the next five years, 2 GW of distributed generation, and direct investment of over one hundred billion yuan. According to the area of ​​1 MW required for 10,000 square meters, the "enclosure" area required by Yingli will exceed 150,000 mu in the next five years.
The total annual design capacity of Shunfeng Optoelectronics has been signed but not yet completed, which exceeds 1079MW. The total annual designed production capacity of the solar power stations constructed and operated exceeds 600 megawatts. It is expected that it will enter the power grid in early 2014, and 2014 Windwind will build 3.4GW. Photovoltaic power station.
TBEA expects to do 500 MW of photovoltaic EPC this year, possibly 1 GW next year, and revenue and earnings are expected to grow explosively.
Zhejiang Zhengtai has built more than 900MW photovoltaic power plants and projects under construction. It has photovoltaic power plants developed and constructed by Chint in the United States, Bulgaria, South Korea, Italy, Shizuishan in Ningxia, Golmud in Qinghai, and Dunhuang in Gansu Province. The assets of the power plants have reached 100 Billion or so.
From 2005 to 2010, a large number of photovoltaic companies launched PV installations. At that time, all PV companies had the same strategy and same-size expansion. Whether they were small companies or leading companies in the industry, they were clearly misjudged, or did not stand short-term profits. Temptation and expansion have almost become synonymous with the era of photovoltaic industry.
According to the "Solar PV Photovoltaic" Twelfth Five-Year Development Plan issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China's photovoltaic cell output has been growing at an annual average rate of over 100% during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period. From 2007 to 2010, it ranked first in the world for 4 consecutive years.
Since 2011, "transition" has become synonymous with another era in the photovoltaic industry. With severe overcapacity, the rapid decline of the European photovoltaic market caused the profits of the PV manufacturing sector to continue to be negative and the company's losses were in a mess. Moreover, PV companies realized that the industrial crisis caused by excess capacity will continue until the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The era of high interest rates has not been possible. Therefore, photovoltaic companies have shouted out the slogan of transformation, that is, from the manufacture of components to the construction of power plants, or direct investment, or do EPC contractors. In short, the industry giants no longer expect that component manufacturing can create much profit.
At present, many Chinese first-line photovoltaic companies have stated that more than 50% of their income will come from power plant construction. Each company is looking for projects, financing, and building power stations. It is doing the same dream. In July this year, the State Council issued the "Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry", which requires that the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation (including terrestrial power stations and distributed generation) be up to 35 GW by 2015. However, according to Wang Yuxue, deputy director of the New Energy Department of the China National Hydroelectric and Water Resources Planning and Design Institute, the current capacity of the photovoltaic power plant that has been approved and approved in the country has reached 19GW. The author can even assert that if the strategic cooperation agreement signed between the enterprise and the local government is counted In the meantime, the reserves of China's photovoltaic power plants may have already exceeded 35 GW.
The industry is undergoing a transformation, but when the industry transformation is stereotyped, it is nothing more than turning a bubble into another. Everyone is building a power station, the power station market will also have excess demand, or the grid connection will be more and more difficult, or the number of power stations and the total state subsidies. The amount of phase.
The photovoltaic industry comes down to earning subsidies
Regardless of how China's PV companies are optimistic about the prospects of the PV industry, their ultimate goal is to earn money from the country's pockets. This core issue determines that the blueprints developed by companies for their own purposes are ineffective. At least under the current background that the cost of photovoltaic power generation cannot achieve a second breakthrough, power station revenues mainly come from state subsidies, and the Chinese government will also strictly control the scale of approval. Therefore, the question of whether to determine the success or failure of enterprises in the future is not how many power stations you want to build, but how many "roads" you can get from the country's limited quotas. When all companies are transformed, I believe that no component manufacturing company can The only one is big and gets the number of plans he has planned.
In addition, there is still a force that can not be ignored in the terminal market, namely, the new energy companies of the central government and several major power generation groups. These enterprises have strong financial resources and their advantages in grid connection are stronger than those of private enterprises, and they will certainly obtain the vast majority of power plant construction rights. As long as PV power plants are also subject to policy approval, the strategic planning of most private enterprises will remain on paper. The reason is very simple. Photovoltaic power plants are not what you want to build.
China's PV power plants have absolutely no ability to dig gold from the market and consumers. In the final analysis, they are earning state subsidies, and the amount of funding allocated by the country is almost constant. Accordingly, the annual installed PV power will be about 10 GW. The market share gained by a private photovoltaic company is actually very similar to that of today. The government plan remains unchanged, and business planning actually loses meaning unless you do not plan to subsidize it.
The subsidies for large-scale ground power stations in China are still relatively high, but the grid connection problem of large-scale ground power stations has been criticized. It is difficult for them to have great development potential. Taking Qinghai Province as an example, the annual installed capacity of PV in Qinghai will be maintained at about 1GW, and this value will be maintained for 3 to 5 years. If China's annual PV installation capacity is maintained at around 10 GW, ground-based photovoltaic power plants will dominate the market; if it exceeds 10 GW, the Chinese PV market must rely on distributed photovoltaic power generation in order to achieve a major breakthrough.
China's distributed photovoltaic power generation is at a stage of exploration, and the price of electricity for residential use is seriously low. The price of electricity for Chinese residents is about 1/2 of that for industrial use, while in foreign countries, the opposite is true, and the price of electricity for foreign residents is twice that of industrial electricity. Therefore, they can vigorously promote the civilian photovoltaic market. In contrast, China can only promote its use in industrial parks where electricity prices are relatively high, and distributed systems are more exposed to these risks at the same price. It remains to be seen whether the projects listed in the demonstration park can achieve expected returns. After all, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the use of electricity in industrial parks.
Policy is not a law
The prospects of the photovoltaic market are huge, but as of now, many private capitals such as insurance and pension funds do not have investment intentions. They still have a heavy reliance on the benefits and stability of photovoltaic power plants. After all, policies are not laws, and many government documents have been implemented. Worrying.
As long as the policy is not legalized, the problem of full acquisition of power generation, timely distribution of subsidies, and fixed duration of subsidies cannot be guaranteed, and the revenue of power stations will also change in the next 25 years. Inadvertently selling at full capacity, photovoltaic power plant yields are inherently low, long recovery periods and stability are the most important. Without laws as a reliance, the generation of bubbles is very likely. The Japanese government may adjust its domestic photovoltaic policy before April 2014. The Chinese government may also gradually reduce the subsidies in the next year. At that time, the return on investment of photovoltaic companies will be greatly reduced. Do you not know that companies are still willing to build a large number of photovoltaic power plants?
China's photovoltaic policy seems to be improving, but in reality it is in an uncertain state. In short, as long as the capital market does not trust the photovoltaic industry, China's photovoltaic industry will never be able to make great development.
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