Analysis of the Economic Operation of the Petrochemical Industry in the First Half

In the first half of this year, affected by the Japan earthquake and the situation in Libya, crude oil prices rose rapidly and fluctuated at high levels. The market demand for petrochemical products was strong, the growth rate of the industrial output value was significantly higher than the growth rate of production, the overall economic performance was good, and the investment direction was continuously optimized. Trade gradually expanded, showing a steady and rapid development overall. In the second half of the year, as the uncertainties in the international economic recovery increased, the development environment of the petrochemical industry became tight and the overall growth rate showed a slowing trend.

First, the rapid growth of the total industrial value, the growth rate showed a declining trend

From January to June, the petrochemical industry realized a production value of 470.5 billion yuan, an increase of 34.4% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the previous year. Among them, the oil refining industry was 1.5108 trillion yuan, an increase of 31% year-on-year; the chemical industry was 3,068,500 million yuan, an increase of 36% year-on-year. In the first five months of this year, the growth rate of the petrochemical industry grew by 13.3%, which was 0.4% lower than last year.

From the operating situation of the previous six months, the growth rate of the output value of the petrochemical industry showed a decreasing trend, falling from 36.1% in February to 34.4% in June; the growth rate of added value also showed a declining trend, dropping from about 15% in February to 5 Less than 12% of the month. It is initially predicted that the growth rate of the petrochemical industry will continue to slow down in the second half of the year, with the growth rate of specialty chemicals and synthetic materials declining relatively quickly.

Second, the growth rate of product output fell, nitrogen fertilizer production rebounded

From January to June, the production of major petrochemical products maintained a steady growth, with 229.96 million tons of processed crude oil, 131.56 million tons of refined oil production, and 7.81 million tons of ethylene, up 7.1%, 7.4%, and 17.2% year-on-year, respectively. 11.1%, 12.7%, and 30.6% of the month fell back to -0.7%, -0.6%, and 4.7% in June. The negative growth of refined oil production was mainly due to the rapid rise in international crude oil prices. The refining industry turned from profit to loss, with a net loss of 3.1 billion yuan in May, resulting in a decline in crude oil processing volume and product oil production level. The crude oil processing volume and finished products in June Oil production fell by 2% and 7.3% respectively.

However, nitrogen fertilizer products, which account for more than half of total fertiliser production, bucked the trend and production increased month by month. In particular, urea production reversed the passive situation of the first four months of decline in output, and it once again stabilized in May. In June, it continued to maintain a growth trend, which favorably protected the need for spring plowing and fertilizer use. In the second half of the year, the production of major petrochemical products will continue to grow steadily, and a few products will experience temporary fluctuations due to market changes and other factors.

III. Overall economic efficiency is good, and some industries have difficulties in operating

From January to May this year, the petrochemical industry realized a total profit of 173.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%; the profit growth rate showed a declining trend month by month, making it difficult for some industries to operate. By sector, the total profit of the chemical industry from January to May was 156.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.8%. Among them, the benefits of high-end petrochemical products such as synthetic materials were significantly better than those of basic chemicals. Affected by the soaring rubber prices, the profits of the tire manufacturing industry increased by only 3.7% year-on-year, and the loss amount increased by 90.7% year-on-year.

The total profit of the oil refining industry from January to May was 13.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.7%. The sales profit margin was only 1.2%; the loss amount was 17 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5 times year-on-year. The major reason for the sharp decline in profits of the oil refining industry was the rapid rise in crude oil prices. Although the price of refined oil was raised by the State on April 6, the price increase of products was limited, and the increase in sales cost was higher than the increase in main business income; the products ranged from January to May. The cost of sales increased by 38.3% year-on-year, while the main business income only increased by 31.6% year-on-year, a difference of 6.7 percentage points, which in turn affected profit growth.

Since May, international crude oil prices have ended the upward trend since the beginning of this year, fluctuating around US$100/bbl, which has led to steady declines in the prices of bulk basic commodities such as rubber. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the increase in the profit of the petrochemical industry will generally show a declining trend, but the operating conditions of the oil refining and tire industry will improve.

Fourth, the steady growth of investment in the slowing down, capital investment continues to optimize

From January to June, the petrochemical industry accumulated a total investment of 480.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, which was lower than the growth rate of the entire society's fixed asset investment by 1.1 percentage points; 10609 construction projects, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; 5778 new projects started, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6 %. Among them, the increase in investment in fertilizers, coatings and other industries with excess capacity is only 14-22%, which is significantly lower than the industry average. The investment in high-end petrochemical products, such as synthetic materials and specialty chemicals, which are in short supply, has increased by as much as 27-32%, which is significantly higher than the industry. The average value of the high-end industrial investment is obvious. As the number of construction projects and new projects started to decline, the growth of industrial investment in the second half of the year was weak.

In terms of different industries, from January to June, the refining industry completed a total investment of 59.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, 691 construction projects, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; 357 new projects started, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%; 188 completed projects, Increased by 7.4%. With the completion of the oil quality upgrading project, the growth rate of investment in the second half of the year has declined. The accumulated investment in the chemical industry was 399.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, 9,327 construction projects, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and 5,078 new projects, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%; 2,923 completed projects, an increase of 16.1% year-on-year. With efforts to curb excessive growth in high-energy-consuming industries, the growth rate of investment in the industry in the second half of the year will gradually decline.

V. The growth rate of foreign trade rises first and then falls, and the latter develops under the control of oil prices.

In the first half of the year, the petrochemical industry’s import and export trade continued to maintain rapid growth. From January to May, the total value of imports and exports was US$158.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%. Among them, total imports reached 93 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 24.3% year-on-year; total exports were 65.1 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 32.6% year-on-year. Affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices and petrochemical prices, the monthly import and export volume of the petrochemical industry rose first and then fell in the first half of the year, from 14.1% in February to 30.4% in March, and then to 26.7% in May. The development trend in the second half of the year depends on the price of crude oil.

On the import side, import of petroleum products from January to May was 23.1 million tons, an increase of 14.4% year-on-year. As oil prices rose, imports of foreign exchange increased by 41.8% year-on-year to US$15.9 billion, accounting for 17.1% of the total imports of petrochemical products. The import value of chemical products was 74.3 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 21% year-on-year; among them, the imports of organic chemicals and the three major synthetic materials were as high as 18.9 billion U.S. dollars and 30.5 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 20.3% and 32.8% of the import value of petrochemical products, respectively.

In terms of exports, the volume of exports of petroleum products from January to May increased by 13% from the same period of the previous year, which represented a decrease of 1.7% over the same period of the previous year. The foreign exchange earned reached US$9.6 billion, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year, accounting for 14.7% of total exports. The export of chemical products earned 53.4 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 37% year-on-year; among them, the exports of organic chemicals, rubber products, and specialty chemicals were 13.8 billion U.S. dollars, 14.8 billion U.S. dollars, and 7.4 billion U.S. dollars, respectively, each accounting for 21% of the petrochemical product export value. 23%, 11%.

Sixth, product prices are generally stable, oil prices should rise

In the first half of the year, the prices of petrochemical products were generally stable, but due to the adjustment of refined oil prices by the country, the price of petroleum products should rise. In June, the industry product sales rate was 98.3%, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. Production and sales were basically balanced. According to preliminary judgments, the overall price trend of petrochemical products remained stable in the second half of the year. Some product prices were affected by policy adjustments and other factors, and large fluctuations occurred.

From January to May, the price index of petroleum products gradually increased from 114 at the beginning of the year to nearly 118 in May. The diesel market price of No. 0 rose from 7,814 yuan/ton to 8,594 yuan/ton, and that of 93th gasoline rose from 9,121 yuan/ton to 10047 yuan. Yuan / ton. In the same period, the price index of chemical products rose from 108 at the beginning of the year to about 110 in May, only rising by 2 percentage points; due to strong market demand and supply shortage, the price index of high-end petrochemical products such as synthetic materials and special chemicals exceeded 110, and other chemical products The price fluctuates around 105 and the market price remains stable.

It should be pointed out that the price of fertilizers, especially urea, increased significantly in June, and the average ex-factory price of enterprises rose by 200 yuan/ton. Main reasons: First, resources have been reduced. Since the beginning of this year, due to factors such as shortages of coal, natural gas, and electricity, urea production in the first four months has dropped by 5.4% year-on-year, including a decline of 6.4% in April; Falling back, but urea production in the first half of the year still fell 4%. Second, the short-term demand has been magnified. Since the beginning of this year, the demand for industrial fertilizers has been growing steadily, but the level of social inventory is not high, coupled with the low tariff period of urea exports in July and the price increase in the international market, the procurement of business enterprises and stocking Enthusiasm is high.

In the first half of the year, the petrochemical industry achieved overall rapid development, driven by the gradual recovery of the international economy and steady and rapid growth of the domestic economy. In the second half of the year, as the uncertainties in the international economic recovery increased and domestic efforts to combat inflation and energy-saving and emission reduction increased, the petrochemical industry's development environment became tighter, and the overall growth rate showed a slowing trend.