In September 2017, the pace of expansion of China's manufacturing and service industries slowed down.
Recently announced the September Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which recorded 51, lower than 0.6 percentage points in August, ending the previous three-month uptrend; the service industry PMI also fell 2.1 percentage points to 50.6. , the lowest for 21 months. Affected by this, the fiscal comprehensive China PMI fell to 51.4 in September, down from 1% in August, the lowest in three months.
This trend is inconsistent with the Bureau of Statistics' manufacturing PMI. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI for September was 52.4, up 0.7 percentage points from August; the service business activity index was 54.4, up 1.8 percentage points.
From the breakdown of the sub-data, there is a big difference between the two manufacturing PMIs: in the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, the output index, the new order index, and the new export order index all declined during the expansion period, and the finished goods inventory index and purchase inventory The index fell into the contraction range, and the employment index climbed slightly in the contraction range. In the manufacturing PMI of the Bureau of Statistics, the production index, the new order index, and the new export order index all rose to the recent high level, and the raw material inventory index also climbed in the contraction range. The finished goods inventory index and employment index continued to fall in the contraction interval.
Similarly, affected by factors such as environmentally limited production and accelerated supply-side reforms, the input and output price indices of the two manufacturing PMIs continued to climb, both of which rose to high levels during the year.
There are also some differences in the PMI sub-indices of the two service industries: In the PMI of China's service industry, the output index and the business expectation index both fell. In the PMI of the statistical services industry, these two indexes rose. Similarly, the employment index has slowed down and the input price index continues to climb.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chairman and chief economist of Caixin Think Tank Monita Research, believes that from the perspective of Caixin PMI, the overall performance of the economy in the third quarter was better, but both the manufacturing and service industries were cold in September, or hinted at the fourth quarter. The downward pressure on the economy is reproduced.
Since the beginning of this year, China's economic trend has shown a trend of falling at the end of the quarter, and the economic decline in July and August continued to exceed market expectations. In September, the two PMIs diverged and were affected by factors such as falling demand, environmental protection and production restrictions. The final economic jump is less than the end of the first two quarters.
A series of recent data shows that the downward pressure on the economy still exists: since the middle of the year, with the slowdown in external demand, the important factor supporting the rebound in the first half of the year--exports, the growth rate has declined; environmental supervision under high pressure, August industrial The year-on-year growth rate of the added value dropped to 6.0% during the year; the impact of clearing local hidden liabilities gradually appeared, and the capital investment dropped at a high level; affected by the property market regulation, inventory consumption, business loans and illegal property market entry, recent real estate sales, Both investment and new construction growth have slowed down. Jinjiu is not yet available, and Yinshi is also difficult.
Although the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in August rose sharply to a four-year high, it was largely due to the impact of supply-side reforms and environmentally-friendly production. The upstream industry's profit recovery was significantly higher than that of the middle and lower reaches. At the same time, the transmission of profit improvement to the investment side is still unsmooth, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment and private investment is still sluggish. It will take time for confidence to recover.
With the arrival of the heating season, the environmental protection production limit in the fourth quarter is unlikely to weaken, and the shrinking price of industrial production will continue. The fall in economic growth in the future will be a high probability event. The price increase brought by supply-side reform and environmental protection and production will slow down the growth rate to a certain extent. In the context of a steady slowdown in demand, the economic trend will be more dependent on the adjustment of supply-side policies.
Recently announced the September Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which recorded 51, lower than 0.6 percentage points in August, ending the previous three-month uptrend; the service industry PMI also fell 2.1 percentage points to 50.6. , the lowest for 21 months. Affected by this, the fiscal comprehensive China PMI fell to 51.4 in September, down from 1% in August, the lowest in three months.
This trend is inconsistent with the Bureau of Statistics' manufacturing PMI. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI for September was 52.4, up 0.7 percentage points from August; the service business activity index was 54.4, up 1.8 percentage points.
From the breakdown of the sub-data, there is a big difference between the two manufacturing PMIs: in the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, the output index, the new order index, and the new export order index all declined during the expansion period, and the finished goods inventory index and purchase inventory The index fell into the contraction range, and the employment index climbed slightly in the contraction range. In the manufacturing PMI of the Bureau of Statistics, the production index, the new order index, and the new export order index all rose to the recent high level, and the raw material inventory index also climbed in the contraction range. The finished goods inventory index and employment index continued to fall in the contraction interval.
Similarly, affected by factors such as environmentally limited production and accelerated supply-side reforms, the input and output price indices of the two manufacturing PMIs continued to climb, both of which rose to high levels during the year.
There are also some differences in the PMI sub-indices of the two service industries: In the PMI of China's service industry, the output index and the business expectation index both fell. In the PMI of the statistical services industry, these two indexes rose. Similarly, the employment index has slowed down and the input price index continues to climb.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chairman and chief economist of Caixin Think Tank Monita Research, believes that from the perspective of Caixin PMI, the overall performance of the economy in the third quarter was better, but both the manufacturing and service industries were cold in September, or hinted at the fourth quarter. The downward pressure on the economy is reproduced.
Since the beginning of this year, China's economic trend has shown a trend of falling at the end of the quarter, and the economic decline in July and August continued to exceed market expectations. In September, the two PMIs diverged and were affected by factors such as falling demand, environmental protection and production restrictions. The final economic jump is less than the end of the first two quarters.
A series of recent data shows that the downward pressure on the economy still exists: since the middle of the year, with the slowdown in external demand, the important factor supporting the rebound in the first half of the year--exports, the growth rate has declined; environmental supervision under high pressure, August industrial The year-on-year growth rate of the added value dropped to 6.0% during the year; the impact of clearing local hidden liabilities gradually appeared, and the capital investment dropped at a high level; affected by the property market regulation, inventory consumption, business loans and illegal property market entry, recent real estate sales, Both investment and new construction growth have slowed down. Jinjiu is not yet available, and Yinshi is also difficult.
Although the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in August rose sharply to a four-year high, it was largely due to the impact of supply-side reforms and environmentally-friendly production. The upstream industry's profit recovery was significantly higher than that of the middle and lower reaches. At the same time, the transmission of profit improvement to the investment side is still unsmooth, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment and private investment is still sluggish. It will take time for confidence to recover.
With the arrival of the heating season, the environmental protection production limit in the fourth quarter is unlikely to weaken, and the shrinking price of industrial production will continue. The fall in economic growth in the future will be a high probability event. The price increase brought by supply-side reform and environmental protection and production will slow down the growth rate to a certain extent. In the context of a steady slowdown in demand, the economic trend will be more dependent on the adjustment of supply-side policies.
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