The average price of crude oil in three places rushed to 2% of the wholesale price of refined oil

The weighted rate of change in the average price of crude oil in Brent, Dubai, and Sinta (hereinafter referred to as the “average rate of change in the three regions”) has reached more than 2%, and is approaching the 4% red line of price adjustment. Some parts of the country Oil wholesalers also started to increase prices of gasoline and diesel.

Bulk wholesale prices across the country Yu Yu, an analyst of the China Daily News, told China Business News that a number of wholesalers including Sinopec and PetroChina had recently raised gasoline and diesel prices. After July 27, the two major oil companies in Jiujiang and Nanchang have gradually increased the wholesale price of diesel products from 8,400 yuan to 8,505 yuan per ton on the 5th, which has reached the national wholesale price in Jiangxi.

The two major oil wholesale companies in Henan and Shanxi provinces also began to increase gasoline and diesel prices on August 1, pushing up the rate by as much as 40 yuan to 60 yuan per ton per day, and individual areas even as high as 100 yuan per ton.

The reporter learned from an oil analysis organization that the latest Shandong regional refinery (hereinafter referred to as “Shandong Diligence”) price charts for gasoline and diesel found that a number of Shandong geometallurgical refineries began to raise prices on July 26. The No. 0 diesel price rose from 7,950 yuan to about 8,150 yuan yesterday, an increase of up to 200 yuan / ton.

“The current increase is not yet the highest, and the trend of the whole market is showing a trend of rising from high to low and then increasing again,” said Liu Bo, a researcher at Guojin Securities, from April 7 this year. After the diesel price reached 400-500 yuan/ton, the wholesale price quotation of Shandong No. 0 diesel oil reached 8,460 yuan/ton at that time, and then went all the way down to 8,130 yuan/ton in mid-May. In June, due to better market demand, diesel prices were again pulled back to 8,300 yuan/ton, but they once again fell to a low point in early July. However, in the past week, prices have risen again.

According to the reporter’s understanding, PetroChina raised the price of gasoline and diesel by RMB 50/t in eight regions including Beijing, Hebei, Shandong, Shanghai, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan and Guangdong last week. Once the transfer price is adjusted, it means that the wholesale prices of petrol and diesel, such as gas stations, industrial and commercial enterprises, and agricultural gasoline and diesel, will also be raised by regional companies.

Why price increase?

Mulberry told reporters that there are two main reasons for price increases in some regions.

The first is that the rate of change in oil prices in the three places has already exceeded 2%, and the country’s price adjustment is imminent. According to CBI statistics, on July 25th, the weighted average price change rate of the three places of crude oil rose from 0.09% to 0.58%, 1.13%, and 1.61% and continued to soar to around 2.2%. The statistical data of Zhongyu Information shows that the average change rate of the three places has been 2.53%.

However, Liao Kaixi, an analyst at CBI, said that “assuming that the Brent oil price in the later period will increase from the current price of US$116/bbl to US$120/bbl for several days, then the average change rate of crude oil prices in the three places will be set at 4%.” Will adjust the price."

Due to the expectation that the government may adjust prices in the near future, it is now necessary for downstream customers to purchase some gasoline and diesel products as reserves as soon as possible. Otherwise, once the price adjustment, it must bear new prices, thereby increasing the company's procurement costs. Thus, even if wholesalers raise 100 to 200 yuan/ton, downstream demand will be stimulated and customers will still be interested in purchasing products.

Another reason is that there are also many overhauls in refineries and lower operating rates in refineries.

The Zhongyu Information Analysis report stated that the current refineries are reluctant to start work, mainly because the actual demand for refined oil products has weakened in August. Even if the country adjusts prices, it is only a short-term support for demand, and actual demand in the middle or late August will not be higher than 7 The month has improved significantly. In addition, some local refineries will choose to overhaul the equipment during the hot summer months, which will give workers and equipment a better rest.