A flood in Australia triggered a “butterfly effect†and washed away one of the five major power generation group’s negotiating chips, further increasing the possibility of a sharp increase in the price of key contract coal.
Two years ago, the five major power generation groups Qi Qi stated that it would increase the procurement of imported coal. This move was understood by the industry as a negotiation bargaining chip thrown by the five major power generation groups, hoping to reduce the price of key contract coal. Starting today (January 5), the 2011 coal contract will be held. The recent heavy rain in Australia "washed out" this chip.
After the National Development and Reform Commission issued a "price limit order," several heads of power generation groups were greeted not to talk about "electric coal contracts" with the media. Coal companies said that the key contract coal prices will still rise, and more news that the increase is 30 ~ 50 yuan / ton.
Australia's flooding has pushed up international coal prices to be affected by the “La Niña†weather phenomenon. Heavy rains have continued in the northeastern part of Australia for the past two weeks. The worst seaborne coal export base in the world, part of Queensland, has suffered severe damage. The floods have caused coal mines to close. According to reports, almost all coal mines have been closed due to flooding. Even if coking coal is shipped to the port, it is too wet and hard to pack. Australian officials said that Queensland will remain flooded for the next week, and the impediment to coking coal transportation is expected to continue.
Shenyin Wanguo stated that the coal production in the Queensland region accounts for about 1/3 of all production in Australia. As the world's largest coal exporter, the reduction in coal supply caused by the floods in Australia will affect the prices of international coal prices, especially international coking coal.
Affected by the flood, the benchmark price of coking coal in Australia in the first quarter of this year was about 225 US dollars per ton, the second highest in history. Economists expect high-quality coking coal prices to rise to $250/ton in the second quarter.
Li Ting, a coal analyst who tracks the coal market for many years, said that the obstruction of Queensland’s production and export will push up the coal export price of Indonesia and other neighboring countries to a certain extent.
With the floods in Australia and the freezing of Europe, since the beginning of December last year, international coal prices have risen for five consecutive weeks.
Global coal platform data show that on December 31 last year, Australia's Newcastle Port thermal coal price index was 128.5 US dollars / ton, compared with the end of November rose 22.73 US dollars / ton, an increase of 21.49%. The European ARA market thermal coal price index rose by US$4.74/tonne on the basis of last week’s 126.31 US$/ton, or 3.75%.
Wu Jie, an analyst with Orient Securities's coal industry, believes that the three major international thermal coal price indices will rise overall on the last day of 2010 and will have a profound impact on the international coal price trend in 2011.
The five major power generation groups have reduced their chips. Domestic coking coal companies have followed up international coal prices. Listed companies Xishan Coal and Panjiang have recently raised their coking coal prices in 2011: Xishan Coal raised the coking coal ex-factory price by 7% to 10%. Panjiang shares Increased 8% to 14%.
In the first half of 2009, the five largest power generation groups Qi Qi stated that it will increase the procurement of imported coal, which is considered to be their negotiating bargaining chip.
According to a senior executive from the five major power generation groups, the amount of imported coal has been increasing since 2010, exceeding that of 2009. According to relevant agencies' estimates, about 160 million tons of coal were imported in 2010, of which thermal coal and anthracite (all used for power generation) accounted for 3/4 and the rest were coking coal.
It is understood that China's top five import coal countries are Indonesia, Australia, Vietnam, Mongolia and Russia. Today, Australia's Dashui has lost the above bargaining chips to the Big Five power generation groups. Li Ting estimated that taking the price of December 31 last year as an example, Australia's Newcastle Port thermal coal price was equal to the Qinhuangdao Port coal price. At present, most of the coal is imported by coastal power plants. Taking Guangzhou as an example, it is estimated from Newcastle Harbor to Guangzhou. The freight from Qinhuangdao Port to Guangzhou is a bit higher, and the spot Australian thermal coal price has lost its appeal.
However, the above-mentioned high-level executives stated that the import of coal from abroad was higher than domestic coal prices. It is only a matter of recent time. “As long as the price is appropriate, coal will be imported.â€
Two years ago, the five major power generation groups Qi Qi stated that it would increase the procurement of imported coal. This move was understood by the industry as a negotiation bargaining chip thrown by the five major power generation groups, hoping to reduce the price of key contract coal. Starting today (January 5), the 2011 coal contract will be held. The recent heavy rain in Australia "washed out" this chip.
After the National Development and Reform Commission issued a "price limit order," several heads of power generation groups were greeted not to talk about "electric coal contracts" with the media. Coal companies said that the key contract coal prices will still rise, and more news that the increase is 30 ~ 50 yuan / ton.
Australia's flooding has pushed up international coal prices to be affected by the “La Niña†weather phenomenon. Heavy rains have continued in the northeastern part of Australia for the past two weeks. The worst seaborne coal export base in the world, part of Queensland, has suffered severe damage. The floods have caused coal mines to close. According to reports, almost all coal mines have been closed due to flooding. Even if coking coal is shipped to the port, it is too wet and hard to pack. Australian officials said that Queensland will remain flooded for the next week, and the impediment to coking coal transportation is expected to continue.
Shenyin Wanguo stated that the coal production in the Queensland region accounts for about 1/3 of all production in Australia. As the world's largest coal exporter, the reduction in coal supply caused by the floods in Australia will affect the prices of international coal prices, especially international coking coal.
Affected by the flood, the benchmark price of coking coal in Australia in the first quarter of this year was about 225 US dollars per ton, the second highest in history. Economists expect high-quality coking coal prices to rise to $250/ton in the second quarter.
Li Ting, a coal analyst who tracks the coal market for many years, said that the obstruction of Queensland’s production and export will push up the coal export price of Indonesia and other neighboring countries to a certain extent.
With the floods in Australia and the freezing of Europe, since the beginning of December last year, international coal prices have risen for five consecutive weeks.
Global coal platform data show that on December 31 last year, Australia's Newcastle Port thermal coal price index was 128.5 US dollars / ton, compared with the end of November rose 22.73 US dollars / ton, an increase of 21.49%. The European ARA market thermal coal price index rose by US$4.74/tonne on the basis of last week’s 126.31 US$/ton, or 3.75%.
Wu Jie, an analyst with Orient Securities's coal industry, believes that the three major international thermal coal price indices will rise overall on the last day of 2010 and will have a profound impact on the international coal price trend in 2011.
The five major power generation groups have reduced their chips. Domestic coking coal companies have followed up international coal prices. Listed companies Xishan Coal and Panjiang have recently raised their coking coal prices in 2011: Xishan Coal raised the coking coal ex-factory price by 7% to 10%. Panjiang shares Increased 8% to 14%.
In the first half of 2009, the five largest power generation groups Qi Qi stated that it will increase the procurement of imported coal, which is considered to be their negotiating bargaining chip.
According to a senior executive from the five major power generation groups, the amount of imported coal has been increasing since 2010, exceeding that of 2009. According to relevant agencies' estimates, about 160 million tons of coal were imported in 2010, of which thermal coal and anthracite (all used for power generation) accounted for 3/4 and the rest were coking coal.
It is understood that China's top five import coal countries are Indonesia, Australia, Vietnam, Mongolia and Russia. Today, Australia's Dashui has lost the above bargaining chips to the Big Five power generation groups. Li Ting estimated that taking the price of December 31 last year as an example, Australia's Newcastle Port thermal coal price was equal to the Qinhuangdao Port coal price. At present, most of the coal is imported by coastal power plants. Taking Guangzhou as an example, it is estimated from Newcastle Harbor to Guangzhou. The freight from Qinhuangdao Port to Guangzhou is a bit higher, and the spot Australian thermal coal price has lost its appeal.
However, the above-mentioned high-level executives stated that the import of coal from abroad was higher than domestic coal prices. It is only a matter of recent time. “As long as the price is appropriate, coal will be imported.â€
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