Wang Zhen, Dean of the School of Business Administration of the University of Petroleum, said that the US dollar will be the dominant factor in the trend of international oil prices in the fourth quarter. He pointed out that in the future, the development trend of domestic refined oil market is that oil price adjustment is more frequent, and everyone needs changes in refined oil prices to change every day as cabbage.
The price adjustment is reasonable and the international pricing mechanism and the domestic social rhythm “from the last price adjustment of refined oil products to the price increase this time, has already passed such a long time, is the time for the price adjustmentâ€. Wang Zhen said that the rate of change in crude oil in the two months of July and September was very close to 4%, and it rose again each time it reached the critical point of price adjustment. From June to now, we can see that during this period, the range of changes in oil prices did not fluctuate significantly from 70 to 80 US dollars, so the price adjustment was in line with the pricing mechanism standards.
"This time the price adjustment is not entirely in accordance with international oil prices to adjust the price, or do a little bit of control to be lower." Wang Zhen said that the National Development and Reform Commission has taken control of the price of refined oil while taking into account the rhythm of the entire society and has adjusted the price of crude oil corresponding to refined oil prices to still be lower than the current international crude oil prices.
The impact of oil price adjustment on the CPI is limited. The US-led international oil price trend The National Bureau of Statistics just announced that the September CPI rose 3.6% year-on-year, hitting a new high in nearly 23 months. “In this condition, will the adjustment of oil prices further push up this figure?†Wang Zhen said that the impact of refined oil price adjustments on CPI is undoubted because it will indirectly affect our consumer products. The more important product oil is the pressure on the environment. This should be viewed from two perspectives. One is the pricing mechanism. It has been in operation for a long time, so it is expected. The other is that this increase will not be calculated simply in the CPI, but indirectly. Indirectly spread in the past.
In an interview with a reporter from China Economic Net, Wang Zhen pointed out that in order to prevent refined oil prices from pushing up the overall price level, the NDRC has stipulated that there is a part that cannot be adjusted for the time being, and it is not possible to increase prices in such sectors as railway transportation. This can slow down the impact on CPI. Therefore, under normal circumstances, the impact of refined oil price adjustment on CPI is limited.
In the fourth quarter, international oil prices generally remained stable. The factors affecting the dollar were heavier. Wang Zhen believes that the global situation in the fourth quarter is generally relatively stable. In 2010, the overall level was relatively stable. In the fourth quarter, supply and demand were relatively loose. The most worrying thing is whether there will be extreme weather conditions, especially in North America. For example, if there is a problem with heating, if the weather gets colder, heating will push up the price of oil. But overall, it will still linger between $75 and $85, and the US dollar will become the dominant factor in the international oil price trend.
Since October, the international crude oil price has continued to rise, and has been affected by factors such as domestic diesel resources. The wholesale price of diesel in most parts of the country has risen to the highest wholesale limit price, and the price of some local diesel supply terminals that have been subject to limited approval has exceeded. Limit price. Regarding “the diesel shortage in many places before the adjustment of oil prices, gas stations began to raise prices or stop selling, and refueling had to queue up long teams. Is this true supply tension caused?†Wang Zhen replied: “It can be said Yes, it can be said that it is not.†He said that diesel lined up, a large part because it can be used to generate electricity, which is related to power cuts. The expectation of the upward adjustment has increased the part of speculation. It is not a big change. It is policy.
Wang Zhen said that in the future, the development of the domestic refined oil market will be more sensitive, which is a trend. Domestic reforms will be more frequent and this will require a process for everyone to get used to. He believes that the future changes in refined oil prices will be the same as cabbage, changing every day, which is marketization. The current pricing mechanism serves as a smooth process. With the NDRC's reform direction, the market will gradually accept this change. From the investment field to enterprise decision-making, future analysis should be based on their respective departments. Because of this, it also requires departments to obtain more information and make more effective judgments.
The price adjustment is reasonable and the international pricing mechanism and the domestic social rhythm “from the last price adjustment of refined oil products to the price increase this time, has already passed such a long time, is the time for the price adjustmentâ€. Wang Zhen said that the rate of change in crude oil in the two months of July and September was very close to 4%, and it rose again each time it reached the critical point of price adjustment. From June to now, we can see that during this period, the range of changes in oil prices did not fluctuate significantly from 70 to 80 US dollars, so the price adjustment was in line with the pricing mechanism standards.
"This time the price adjustment is not entirely in accordance with international oil prices to adjust the price, or do a little bit of control to be lower." Wang Zhen said that the National Development and Reform Commission has taken control of the price of refined oil while taking into account the rhythm of the entire society and has adjusted the price of crude oil corresponding to refined oil prices to still be lower than the current international crude oil prices.
The impact of oil price adjustment on the CPI is limited. The US-led international oil price trend The National Bureau of Statistics just announced that the September CPI rose 3.6% year-on-year, hitting a new high in nearly 23 months. “In this condition, will the adjustment of oil prices further push up this figure?†Wang Zhen said that the impact of refined oil price adjustments on CPI is undoubted because it will indirectly affect our consumer products. The more important product oil is the pressure on the environment. This should be viewed from two perspectives. One is the pricing mechanism. It has been in operation for a long time, so it is expected. The other is that this increase will not be calculated simply in the CPI, but indirectly. Indirectly spread in the past.
In an interview with a reporter from China Economic Net, Wang Zhen pointed out that in order to prevent refined oil prices from pushing up the overall price level, the NDRC has stipulated that there is a part that cannot be adjusted for the time being, and it is not possible to increase prices in such sectors as railway transportation. This can slow down the impact on CPI. Therefore, under normal circumstances, the impact of refined oil price adjustment on CPI is limited.
In the fourth quarter, international oil prices generally remained stable. The factors affecting the dollar were heavier. Wang Zhen believes that the global situation in the fourth quarter is generally relatively stable. In 2010, the overall level was relatively stable. In the fourth quarter, supply and demand were relatively loose. The most worrying thing is whether there will be extreme weather conditions, especially in North America. For example, if there is a problem with heating, if the weather gets colder, heating will push up the price of oil. But overall, it will still linger between $75 and $85, and the US dollar will become the dominant factor in the international oil price trend.
Since October, the international crude oil price has continued to rise, and has been affected by factors such as domestic diesel resources. The wholesale price of diesel in most parts of the country has risen to the highest wholesale limit price, and the price of some local diesel supply terminals that have been subject to limited approval has exceeded. Limit price. Regarding “the diesel shortage in many places before the adjustment of oil prices, gas stations began to raise prices or stop selling, and refueling had to queue up long teams. Is this true supply tension caused?†Wang Zhen replied: “It can be said Yes, it can be said that it is not.†He said that diesel lined up, a large part because it can be used to generate electricity, which is related to power cuts. The expectation of the upward adjustment has increased the part of speculation. It is not a big change. It is policy.
Wang Zhen said that in the future, the development of the domestic refined oil market will be more sensitive, which is a trend. Domestic reforms will be more frequent and this will require a process for everyone to get used to. He believes that the future changes in refined oil prices will be the same as cabbage, changing every day, which is marketization. The current pricing mechanism serves as a smooth process. With the NDRC's reform direction, the market will gradually accept this change. From the investment field to enterprise decision-making, future analysis should be based on their respective departments. Because of this, it also requires departments to obtain more information and make more effective judgments.
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