We believe that in the future, the background of the development of the chemical industry is: 1. Macroeconomic stabilization; 2. Geopolitical risks kept oil prices high and oscillated slightly; 3. The demand gradually improved; 4. Product prices stabilize first and then increase; 5. Industrial concentration, energy saving and emission reduction, and new materials are the main directions of industrial policy.
There is still certain risk in the chemical sector before the first quarter report. The risk is expected to be fully released after the first quarter. The reasons are as follows: 1. The profit level of the chemical industry hit a record high in the first half of 2011, resulting in a high year-on-year basis in the first quarter of 2012; 2. In the first quarter of the traditional off-season, the industry's profit growth rate is more likely to fall than in the fourth quarter of 2011; 3. Due to the impact of the macro economy, the demand in the first quarter of 2012 was weak; 4. The increase in prices of chemicals in December 2011-February 2012 had a time lag in the transmission of corporate performance.
In the past two weeks, the overall price of chemical products has shown a steady state trend and the spread has dropped. We believe that the price of chemical products will remain quiet for some time, and it is expected that another wave of rising prices will emerge in April-May, and the rate of increase will depend on the recovery of terminal demand driven by the macro economy.
At present, the profitability of most chemical products is at a historically low level. Chemical fiber, fluorine chemical industry, and coal chemical industry are worthy of attention, and the room for profitability rebound is large. From a product perspective, the current profitability of phosphorus-based chemical products, caustic soda, and urea products is at a relatively high level; the profitability of ethylene, PVC, butanone, adipic acid, polyester, acetic acid, TDI, and MDI products is historically low. Level.
Investment suggestion: After the quarterly report, the price of chemical products has a higher momentum of growth, and the industry enters the peak season of demand, and the risk release in the secondary market is relatively sufficient. We can begin to pay attention to the chemical sector. In the short term, we can focus on two types of investment opportunities: one is to pay attention to the phased investment opportunities brought about by rising product prices; the other is to pay attention to the alternative advantages and investment opportunities of coal chemical industry.
There is still certain risk in the chemical sector before the first quarter report. The risk is expected to be fully released after the first quarter. The reasons are as follows: 1. The profit level of the chemical industry hit a record high in the first half of 2011, resulting in a high year-on-year basis in the first quarter of 2012; 2. In the first quarter of the traditional off-season, the industry's profit growth rate is more likely to fall than in the fourth quarter of 2011; 3. Due to the impact of the macro economy, the demand in the first quarter of 2012 was weak; 4. The increase in prices of chemicals in December 2011-February 2012 had a time lag in the transmission of corporate performance.
In the past two weeks, the overall price of chemical products has shown a steady state trend and the spread has dropped. We believe that the price of chemical products will remain quiet for some time, and it is expected that another wave of rising prices will emerge in April-May, and the rate of increase will depend on the recovery of terminal demand driven by the macro economy.
At present, the profitability of most chemical products is at a historically low level. Chemical fiber, fluorine chemical industry, and coal chemical industry are worthy of attention, and the room for profitability rebound is large. From a product perspective, the current profitability of phosphorus-based chemical products, caustic soda, and urea products is at a relatively high level; the profitability of ethylene, PVC, butanone, adipic acid, polyester, acetic acid, TDI, and MDI products is historically low. Level.
Investment suggestion: After the quarterly report, the price of chemical products has a higher momentum of growth, and the industry enters the peak season of demand, and the risk release in the secondary market is relatively sufficient. We can begin to pay attention to the chemical sector. In the short term, we can focus on two types of investment opportunities: one is to pay attention to the phased investment opportunities brought about by rising product prices; the other is to pay attention to the alternative advantages and investment opportunities of coal chemical industry.
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