First, China's energy supply and demand growth has slowed significantly. In 2020, China's primary energy output is 4.2 billion tons of standard coal, and its consumption is 4.8 billion tons of standard coal, with an average annual growth rate of 3.1% and 3.6% respectively. This is half the slowdown compared to the annual growth rate of China's energy production and consumption from 2000 to 2013, 7.3% and 7.6%. This aspect is caused by the slowdown in economic growth, and on the other hand, the demand for total consumption control.
Second, China’s energy self-sufficiency has decreased. In 2020, China’s energy self-sufficiency will be 85%. Compared with historical data, this is the lowest value. In 2013, China’s energy self-sufficiency was 90.6%. Despite this, China's energy supply is generally guaranteed. On the basis of the domestic market, making full use of the energy resources in the global energy market to serve China's economic development will be a new idea for the development of China's energy industry. This also indicates that the scale of China's energy trade will continue to expand.
Third, the optimization of energy consumption structure. In 2020, China's energy consumption structure will be: 62% of coal, 13% of crude oil, 10% of natural gas, and 15% of non-fossil energy. In 2013, the structure was 66% coal, 18.4% crude oil, 5.8% natural gas, and 9.8% non-fossil energy. Coal is still the main source of energy in China, and the use of coal resources is also a basic premise based on the domestic grand strategy. The proportion of crude oil consumption has fallen the most and will be greatly replaced. Overall, energy consumption is developing in a clean and rational way.
Fourth, the growth of oil and gas consumption has diverged. Different from the current trend of rapid growth in China's oil and gas consumption, China's crude oil consumption growth slowed down, and natural gas consumption continued to grow rapidly. By 2020, China's crude oil consumption will be 440 million tons, and natural gas consumption will be 360.6 billion cubic meters. Compared with 2013, China's crude oil consumption will drop by 20 million tons, and natural gas consumption will increase by more than three times. As the consumption of steam and coal is unlikely to decline, the output of other petrochemical products will be affected. The growth of natural gas consumption mainly comes from residential gas consumption, as well as cleaning projects such as oil-to-gas and coal-to-gas.
Fifth, oil and gas production is more scalable. Large-scale, large-scale oil and gas production bases will become the main source of oil and gas production in China. Crude oil production "stable east, upper western, breakthrough sea" is expected to rise on the basis of the current 210 million tons, but the rising potential will not be too great, the ocean will be an important source of crude oil production growth. Due to the decline in crude oil consumption, it can be expected that the growth rate of crude oil external dependence will slow down or decline. In 2020, conventional natural gas production will reach 185 billion cubic meters, unconventional natural gas (shale gas and coalbed methane) production will total 60 billion cubic meters, natural gas production will total 245 billion cubic meters, and natural gas dependence will be 32%. The level is similar. As the dependence on oil and gas will not rise sharply, the decline in China's energy self-sufficiency is mainly due to the increase in coal imports. It is expected that the coal port will be more busy.
The growth rate of conventional natural gas production has slowed down, which is different from previous forecasts, because the latest oil and gas resources evaluation results show that China's conventional natural gas resources are still very rich. Personally, this is based on the prediction of 60 million cubic meters of unconventional natural gas production. If unconventional natural gas extraction progresses, the conventional natural gas production is expected to be higher.
Sixth, oil and gas reserves continue to expand. The decline in crude oil consumption does not mean that crude oil imports will definitely decrease. On the contrary, with the increasing emphasis on domestic crude oil reserves, China's crude oil reserves will continue to rise, which will affect crude oil imports. It is wise to use the opportunity of falling oil prices to expand reserves. The construction of crude oil strategic reserves will become an important factor affecting the external dependence of China's crude oil. Natural gas reserves are valued, but due to the low dependence on foreign countries, the large-scale natural gas reserves are premature, mainly used for peak shaving.
Seventh, unconventional natural gas planning is more reasonable. The shale gas production target for 2020 is reduced to 30 billion cubic meters, which is based on the more reasonable predictions made in the basic situation of China's shale gas industry development over the years, especially in China Petroleum and Sinopec. On the basis of this, the goal should be more confidently achieved. The principles of cautious development of coal-to-liquid and coal-to-gas projects are mainly to support key projects. As these projects are subject to greater oil prices, if the oil price continues to fall, it will affect its economy.
Eighth, the oil and gas price reform focuses on gas price reform. Price reform is the key to a unified, open and competitive modern energy market system in 2020. The focus of oil and gas price reform is still the gas price reform. In 2020, China will form a pricing mechanism that “the price of natural gas wellheads and sales prices will be formed by the market and the price of oil and gas pipelines will be priced by the governmentâ€. This is also the ultimate goal of China's natural gas price reform. However, if there is no corresponding market structure, the formation of this pricing mechanism will still face many difficulties. (Author: Lijun Chen, as Energy Watch scholar)
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